Bombshell: New Study on Long COVID in kids and young adults FAILS to link COVID to Long COVID
Initial symptom severity, loneliness and poor physical activity are linked instead
A new paper out now from the Norwegians on Long COVID in kids and young adolescents takes a sledgehammer to the media narrative of the condition.
TL:DR - Long covid has no link to prior COVID19, instead, initial symptom severity (of whatever virus you get), loneliness and poor physical activity are linked to the “post covid conditions”
That itself is a damning revelation. But let’s get into it.
The paper compares 300+ kids who definitely had COVID19 to 85 matched controls who definitely didn’t. It follows them on a battery of questionnaires and blood tests for 6 months.
The cohort is well matched at baseline, and these kids were all selected because they sought PCR testing for COVID19. Ergo, many may have felt sick, and some of the people sick were sick with covid while others were sick with something else. This is similar to another paper on the topic that I discuss in this video.
The primary endpoint compares whether COVID19 is lined to post covid conditions and post infective fatigue syndrome, and the power calc is actually pretty decent— see paper. I say that because I see people (wrongly) saying it was underpowered.
The first question is how many kids had Post Covid Conditions (PCC)?
Covid group - 48.5%
No covid group 47.1%
Oooff, stone cold negative result. No significant difference;
Second question: how many kids have post-infective fatigue syndrome (PIFS)? The answer is 14.0% and 8.2%, and it is not significant.
COVID19 had nothing do with either of these two conditions.
Let’s me repeat that. Having had COVID19 had NOTHING TO DO with having symptoms consistent with “long covid.”
The authors reference female sex, and indeed there was a numerical difference but it did not meet significance. Instead, initial severity of symptoms, loneliness and poor physical exercise were linked in multivariable analysis.
To me, the most interesting figure is this one. It looks at the correlation between many variables (not all vars, for obvs reasons). The arrow (drawn by me) shows having had COVID.
What you can see is that the fatigue and neuroticism and emotional maladjustment and loneliness and depression are all linked. What you also see is that none of this has anything to do with prior COVID19.
What does this mean?
It means several things
When you talk about Long COVID you have to have a control group. Our new paper tackles this topic.
With time, everyone will get COVID19 anyway, so studies from the past with controls might be the best we do. In the future, there will be no controls.
Fear-mongering about LongCOVID in kids is not justified b/c they will all get it anyway, and many will suffer symptoms of long covid, but the two have nothing to do with each other.
Randomized trials testing interventions— including counseling— are needed for people who suffer greatly from long covid. No intervention should be deployed outside of trials.
Although not emphasized in the paper, there were no biochemical abnormality to explain long COVID, but this is partially moot b/c even COVID can’t explain long covid.
The media have done a tremendous disservice with covering long COVID.
The reason people inaccurately covered long COVID is that they needed to have it— they needed it to be scary— to justify continued restrictions in young populations.
This study has limitations— the biggest is modest attrition, but the strengths are many compared to other papers. The control group & pre-specified power calc are the greatest strengths. Meanwhile, the US CDC keeps lying and saying
It should keep quiet and learn to run better studies.
Finally, the headlines should read: Well done Norwegian study cannot link the symptoms of long COVID to COVID19 in kids and adolescents.
And the article should say: All kids will get COVID19 soon. There are few data to support vaccinating health kids. We should let parents decide, and keep quiet, and in the meantime, learn to never restrict kids lives again.
It’s just that simple.