The CDC and Pennsylvania won’t agree if 2 people died of measles

Josh Shapiro has failed

Josh Shapiro says 2 people died of measles. One was an Amish baby who the medical examiner says did not have an enlarged spleen on autopsy, and whose torso had exterior trauma markings. Whether the kid tested positive for measles by PCR or merely has an IgG antibody from mom is still not reported.

The Atlantic has interviewed the baby’s father and mother (a nasty bit of journalism imo), and seemed to argue that measles is the cause of death— but notably what a parent was told/ believes is not the same as an independent medical appraisal. Parents can be misled. The other is age unknown, co-morbidities unknown. The CDC meanwhile has not counted those deaths. What is going on?

Another issue has entered the political fray. Whether these 2 deaths are possibly, probably, likely or certainly due to measles is now hotly debated, and it joins a growing number of medical issues with different opinions by political party.

Gender medicine: Democrats are pro-youth gender transition and Republicans are against it. Masking: A poorly fitting surgical mask is the MAGA hat for Dems, most Republicans avoid it. SSRIs: Dems happy to take it while pregnant; Republicans are extremely cautious about pregnancy and giving it to kids. ADHD: most boys under-diagnosed according to Dems; we are medicalizing being a normal boy, according to Republicans.

Generally on all these issues— I think the Republicans are closer to reality.

On the 2 measles deaths— it is amazing that Josh Shapiro did a press conference, proudly announced the deaths were in the unvaccinated, but completely abdicated giving any additional information. I suspect history will view his actions as reckless and ultimately contributing to vaccine hesitancy— conspiracies love a data vacuum. Also, FWIW, no matter how influential you think Bobby Kennedy is, I can assure you he did not convince the Amish to avoid vaccines. They reached that conclusion before he was born.

I used to think it was bad that medical issues became polarized, but now I think the only thing worse is when we are not allowed to debate the issues. Consider if COVID was allowed to be openly debated. What if kids deaths were analyzed this way.

How many healthy kids died of COVID?

A German study shows COVID doesn’t kill healthy kids, and yet US totals reach a different conclusion.

What is likely happening is that the US figure is likely wrong— inflated— to suit political purposes. The US government routinely counted kids who were hospitalized with a broken arm who were incidentally found to have covid on PCR (universal testing). At other times, the US government deliberately refused to separate the risk of death in healthy vs kids with comorbidities. All deaths are tragic, but knowing the risk to your kid is critical for informed vaccine decisions. If a parent knew their healthy kid had a ~0% risk of dying of covid, and most covid in kids is like a cold, would they want a novel vaccine product?

Yet, at the time, this debate was entirely suppressed, and the difference in point of view by party was more narrow.

When it comes to measles, ironically, whether they were 2 deaths or 0 deaths— is largely a political talking point. The reality is the benefit-risk calculus to MMR is far more favorable to kids than COVID vaccines. It is a pity that public health has conflated the two, leading many people to choose neither.

Ultimately, I expect more medical issues will take on left-right valence. Cancer screening tests don’t improve all cause mortality— I can imagine one side being more skeptical. Statins in the elderly. A recent trial in NEJM shows a reduction in MI, no all cause mortality benefit, and a wide confidence interval for dementia that cannot rule out a meaningful increase— again, I suspect political polarization will soon happen. (I can understand skipping it in these situations).

What will be the next medical issue to undergo right/left politics? I am unsure, but there will certainly be something.