Time to break all home Covid tests

There is no evidence they make us better off, and plenty of reasons to think they don't

For thousands of years, human beings followed an unspoken rule (more or less). If you feel too sick to do something, rest. If you feel up to it, go for it. Of course there were times when we were more cautious. If you are spending time with a vulnerable person, you might not go unless you felt 100%. But more or less, we let our bodies guide us.

Now we live in peak COVID delusion. People are testing themselves constantly with home kits. When kids get sick, they don't return when they feel better but when the test is sufficiently negative or some arbitrary number of days has past.

Testing makes sense if you are very sick, or seek care in a hospital. It makes sense if you are unvaccinated and older and thus a Paxlovid candidate. But what about all the massive amounts of home testing? Are we better off as a result of this testing bonanza?

First, testing companies are. They make money. Their consultants make money too. I cannot imagine selling out to such companies, but many have. They author academic modeling studies that 'prove' testing helps, but do no such thing. Congress should pass a new sunshine law to reveal the extent of this grift.

Second, would you believe there is no high quality evidence we are better off? To my knowledge, and anyone is free to correct me in the comments, there are zero cluster RCTs showing testing slows spread, or more importantly improves any meaningful outcome (such as number of people getting very sick), in ANY setting. This is the burden that pro-test people face. Prove it helps.

Third, while it is plausible testing improves outcomes, it is also plausible it hurts. Many people are done with testing. Some will lie to get their kids back in school. Some may never test because they worry about the disruption caused by a positive result. Because we let tests guide us, important jobs may be staffed below necessary thresholds.

Fourth, wise European nations don't engage in this stupidity. Check out guidance from Sweden and Denmark

Anthony LaMesa @ajlamesa

Swedish (left) and Danish (right) Covid-19 testing guidance for the general public. Testing is no longer recommended for healthy children and adults, even if symptomatic. This is how we restore normalcy in our society. folkhalsomyndigheten.se/the-public-hea… sst.dk/en/English/Cor…

Vaccines and weight loss are all we can do to lower our risk of getting very sick from covid. But we cannot avoid infection. COVID 19 vaccines currently offer such poor vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease and transmission that near total spread is inevitable. Then, variants will reinfect us many times over in our long lives. Halting this is not possible.

We can test the hell out of us, but with each passing week fewer people will comply. There may be unintended consequences. There will certainly be lying. Most importantly there is no high quality evidence that this testing industrial complex improves any meaningful outcome.

Testing is ultimately a ritual. No different than slaughtering a goat to ward off covid. Just with a touch more bio-plausibility, but equally poor empirical validation (aka none).