Vaccinated older people face risks greater than unvaccinated kids
Our policy does not reflect that; Instead it reflects madness
One of the biggest challenges with sars-cov-2 is truly understanding the age gradient, and why it matters. Being older isn’t just a risk factor for bad outcomes, it is a massive, colossal risk factor. The IFR is at least 1000 times higher in 80 year olds than 8 year olds. To put that in perspective the odds ratio for smoking and lung cancer is merely 20.
The age gradient so important; that it means vaccinated older people often have more to fear than unvaccinated younger people. Check out these population based rates of hospitalization and death by age in the UK (per 100k people)
It is clear that vaccinated older people have risks far higher than that of kids.
That means the older people who are going to bars, restaurants, travel, shopping, cruises, vacation—and many are doing this—have risks greater than kids <18, whom they are asking to mask when outside at recess (in cities like Palo Alto). Truly illogical.
There are 3 implications from this fact
1. Boosters – already there is push back about whether vaccinated young people ‘need’ boosters. As you can see, the risk is already low; only a well done randomized trial showing net benefit (and excluding safety signals) can justify it.
2. Kids 5 to 11 – as you can see, the safety and efficacy profile of a vaccine has to be pristine to be justified in a kid. If you want robust data for a booster (3rd dose) in vaccinated 35 year old—and I do—you want equally good, robust data for a kid
3. Continued deprivation of childhood from kids seems to be a mis-calibration of risk and benefit. Here in San Francisco, I see parents ride around the city with the kid on back of a bicycle (busy city streets with traffic) but not let them remove their mask when playing outdoors. Go ahead and calculate the absolute risks for each of those activities’ min-by-min.
I will wait.
Vinay, I've followed you for years through your podcast, then twitter, now substack. Interesting timing of your move to Substack. Yes, you can speak more freely here.
My husband and I are community college instructors (I teach physiology and micro; he teaches math). We have made the decision to remain unvaccinated and we are facing job loss. We have two boys, ages 15 and 12, and moving will be difficult. We also don't know of where will be able to get jobs - the education field seems to be rapidly closing for us.
The question I often want to ask people that believe strongly that getting vaccinated is so much in the best interest of society that they believe there should be punishment/a price to pay for declining - just how much of a price? Should decliners lose their income, have no future job prospects, have their children's lives upended, blocked from education and any sports or other kid activities? That likewise doesn't seem good for society, either.
Dr Pasad — Thank you thank you thank you for your wise, measured, and compassionate voice during this destabilizing time. I just listened to your conversation with Bari Weiss and it was like a life raft in a sea of crazy. I am also in San Francisco where my 7 and 10 year old have been in public school for over 6 weeks now with ZERO covid transmission, and still the conversation amongst the grown-ups in the school yard is uncontainable glee for Oct 31 when they are counting down for their 5 - 11 year olds to get the shot. Your breakdown here of the risk gradient according to age is so clear and powerful and I will be sharing it amongst friends — though I’ve grown skeptical about reaching those who have already been sucked completely into the mainstream fear narrative. When my husband and I lay awake at 3Am discussing this (and other places we might consider living) I said to him these parents gaming to be “first in line” for their elementary school students remind me of the competitiveness when I was a kid (I’m a few years older than you I think :) for the new Cabbage Patch doll or Air Jordan’s. It feels so utterly disconnected to data — especially here in SF, and it feels reflective of a certain type of excess & sickness — one much for troubling than Covid 19.
Again, I am so grateful for your voice as we try to navigate this! 🙏