Will RFK Jr get confirmed?

Thoughts on the hearing

I have watched most of the RFK Jr. hearing and discussed with colleagues. My guess is that it is largely divided by people’s preconceived notions. His supporters may admire his answers, and his detractors will side with some of the tough questioners. As in many things in life, it is hard to know who objectively got the upper hand. I have seen no polling.

The final question that comes up is simply: will he be confirmed? He can only lose 3 R senators, or more, if he gains D votes.

Raphael Warnock (D) of Georgia is a no. Sanders (D) is surely a no (surprising me because he is more likely to have common ground with Mr. Kennedy on dyes, and food additives than a GOP replacement nominee. Fetterman (D) hasn’t tipped his hand, though I speculated he would be favorable to Mr. Kennedy.

Among Rs, Dr. Bill Cassidy (La.), Susan Collins (Maine) and Lisa Murkowski are being reported to have expressed reservations. Rumors are swirling about McConnell (Ken) and Graham (SC) expressing doubts privately, as well. Some cite McConnell’s childhood polio as a reason he may oppose Mr. Kennedy, but as is often the case in politics, this is likely Proforma, and the real opposition may come from industry lobbyists.

Any votes will be close.

Mr Kennedy’s answers have largely been to emphasize that he is not anti-vaccine or against vaccines, but merely calling for proper scientific studies. His critics would allege that those have been done, but the hearing does not allow us to explore the intricacies of control arm, adverse events, and long term phase IV safety, which are among Mr. Kennedy’s concerns. Thus, the arguments are dissatisfying to a student of evidence based medicine; the arguments are too superficial.

I note Mr. Kennedy’s answer to questions regarding Samoa is similar to the argument I made in this stack.

The true story of the Samoa measles outbreak

Right now, proponents and critics are making a final push in a barrage of op-eds and phone calls to senators. I strongly suspect that will have no effect on the outcome. Unless you have direct access to their ear, one is unlikely to have influence. The betting market was 74:26 a week ago, but I would predict that the *correct* betting market would be 60:40 given he at most can get Fetterman’s vote.

On the next Sensible Medicine podcast (already recorded), Adam John and I discuss. Check it out.

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