A little gem

A colleague sent me this interesting slide that was buried in an FDA VRBAC presentation. Understanding it immediately reveals a problem.

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These data are from Israel concerning boosters. Look the the rates of severe disease in the boosted vs. non boosted population 16 to 39. Yes, I know the confidence interval is vast, but still.

The rate of severe disease in the non-boosted is 0.6 per million. In the boosted is 0.1 per million— a difference of 1 in 2 million. Of course the confidence interval is as wide as a battleship, but this is the ballpark we are in.

And yes of course, as COVID eventually infects us all, both numbers will go up. Though Omicron is milder, so we don’t know just how high.

And of course, it will vary in healthy vs. not-healthy.

But just think about the number for a second: 1 in 2 million severe disease are averted by boosting. How much myocarditis do you need with dose 3 to offset that gain?

Even 1 in a million will tip the scale. 1 in 100,000 will topple the scale, and 1 in 10k will be a landslide. We are going to be in the 1 in 10^5 ballpark people.

People are not thinking clearly. 2 shots in a healthy young person puts bad covid outcomes under the floor. A booster will be detrimental with even a tiny safety signal.

Boosting young men is nuts.

Paul Offit is correct.

When everyone eventually sees this, mass vaccination efforts will be in serious jeopardy. The backlash will make our head spin. This won’t end well.