In the past week I’ve read two posts on our local mom’s group asking how soon they can get their teenage sons boosted after their recent Covid infection. “10 days? Great!” I tried quoting Paul Offit but I think they assumed he’s just some random anti-vaxxer. 😂 People have lost it.
My new tact is to say nothing and people can take the risk they want. (Sadly, most just don’t realize it). However, I do need scientists and doctors to keep pushing this because mandates are insane. For example, luckily not my teen, but her 16 yr old friend is going on a trip this summer (female, so prob low risk of myocarditis but super athlete and given how it’s been swept under the rug, I no longer trust i know about 1 in 100k risks- which is what I care about for a boost after being fully protected against severe disease w/ 2 doses). Here’s the story-
Teen has to have a boost to go on trip this summer. For teens who get boosted in jan/Feb for a trip in June, the benefit, which is a temporary reduction in getting any infection, will have dissipated. (Again, her initial vax has brought this healthy teens risk to near zero of a severe outcome). If the goal of the boost was to minimize trip disruptions (kids having to miss it due to covid, kids getting covid and ruining trip while away), then they should require the boost 4-6 weeks ahead! (Per Paul offit, 3-4 months of that extra protection against any infection, but a UK study showed that efficacy waned from 75% at week 3-4 to 35% Pfizer/45% moderna by week 10 so that’s 2.5 months). (By the way, I did just get boosted myself so that I have peak protection for an upcoming trip but my teen who was vaccinated in June will take her chances with covid and we can try to be more cautious the week before the trip to avoid ruining the trip). This is insanity - behavior driven by the inconvenience of getting covid, not a fear of severe outcomes! (And another big study just showed long covid rates for those vaxxed are the same as those who never had covid, so baseline - I would include long covid as a severe outcome).
My college is mandating boosters for spring semester. I got a waiver since I'm in an online-only program, but even then I had to jump through some hoops. Students in on-campus programs but taking online classes must still get the booster to stay enrolled. Madness.
How can a school mandate vaccines if they don't mitigate (or just barely mitigate) transmission?
I love how statistics and percentages can be manipulated. 600% more likely to get severe illness! But what if your chance of severe illness was like 1 in 10,000 to begin with?
(By the way, I'm inferring that you're saying the CDC would translate the data for its own agenda.)
From the beginning I was thinking it was nuts to mandate vaccinations. For my demographic (30-39 years old), there have been about 15,000 deaths out of a total population of over 40,000,000. That's a 0.04% chance of death if I have covid. But that's a crude estimate. I'm a fit person with no known underlying health issues, get plenty of vitamin D-producing sunlight even in the winter because I'm in Southern CA, eat reasonably well, get sleep, etc. Considering that the overwhelming majority of deaths, especially in young people, have happened in those with multiple underlying conditions, I'd say my chance of dying IF I got covid was maybe 0.02 or 0.01%. And then there's the fact that much of these covid deaths occurred pre-omicron. So now with an even less dangerous variant circulating, what's my chance of dying now? 0.001%? (By the way, I got covid at the end of December 2021. My reaction to the first 2 doses of Pfizer were magnitudes worse.)
Anyway, my point is, sure, I could reduce my chances of getting severe disease or death by maybe 50% if I got the booster shot. But what's 50% of an already minuscule chance?
Oh dear, looking at numbers are you? Few really understand their personal risk. When I see someone say the IFR is xyz, I ask what is the IFR for a woman, aged 40, an average person? You stated it: ~ 0.04% which is similar to seasonal flu.
And now there’s todays NYT!! So infuriating- again blended data that includes inmunocomp and people with risk factors! They even say “if immunocomp or elderly, risk even higher “. But that means someone has to be lower than average to get to an average across all pop. They later in this mornings newsletter show that young democrats are more worried about severe disease than older democrats- and there’s no comment to say how irrational it is for healthy young people who have immunity (often vaxxed plus covid and/or boost) to fear a severe outcome!
“ Irrational skepticism
The C.D.C. has begun to publish data on Covid outcomes among people who have received booster shots, and the numbers are striking:
Based on 25 U.S. jurisdictions. | Source: C.D.C.
As you can see, vaccination without a booster provides a lot of protection. But a booster takes somebody to a different level.”
It'll be interesting to see how all that "fear of death" anxiety shortens their lives. In a decade or two, we'll have data on how many died of early heart failure.
If this gets borne out by the data, it's a big deal.
Btw is it only me or does it seem like a bunch of people have dropped dead after the 3rd booster? The WSJ film critic guy, the Canadian cardiologist, the NY Times Wirecutter Editor, etc. Maybe the myocarditis thing will be more than just with young men, when we take into account boosters?
Thank you for always being straightforward and honest. I feel that those who NEED to hear this directly maybe aren't reading your Substacks?! Ironic! We can only continue to share and hope! Its mind blowing that boosters have been widely recc. for ANYONE male or female who are healthy below age 40 at best. I wonder if you will be open to researching just the myocarditis incidences maybe just even in your own state of CA....from the point that boosters were recc. in a 6mo time frame? Is there a way to pick 20 major hospitals in the state or some way of gathering data on this one item from all? It would be super interesting to see records of the # of myocarditis from those ages 40 and below in all of 2018 and 2019....and then the # from when boosters were recc to the present. Blow it up! Sure some would have occurred anyway....but it would be great to see what has gone on? What was the age spread? Can we look at this in real life? Are you open to chatting with any of these folks you may find in your area who are young and endured this side effect? You can really affect booster reccs positively by continuing to raise awareness on this safety signal! Thank you!
I think another issue is the cognitive dissonance people have. I've shown plenty of people raw data from summer 2020 and they usually just go along with what CNN or other MSM outlets spout. Some people agree with me about the fear mongering, but then they just kind of throw their hands up and say something like "isn't it easier to just get the jab?" or "it's easier to just go along" or "it's not a big deal".
Same. Here in Madison, WI we have the most highly vaccinated county in WI. Several months ago my neighbors with healthy 12-16yr old boys were running to get them a booster. I cringed. Did they get detailed well thought out advice from their Pediatrician first? Just advice from the TV? Did they has tough questions and then conclude it was still better? Our school District partnered with a local hospital system and held a pop up clinic for boosters for any teacher/staff who wanted one on the 1st day they became available....it was held stupidly on a Monday....the remainder of the week into the following week classes all over the district had to be on a "modified learning" schedule due to a HUGE # of teachers "out sick" or present but unable to teach at their full capacity. 1 I know was out for a full week she was so sick.
Apparently, your immune system is at great risk for a period after the vaccine administration (initial or boost). Not sure why this detail isn't widely known. After the shot, a person should be extra careful for a unknown period.
Good point about people being out sick from the boosters.
I was considering getting a booster over the holidays so I wouldn't have to take time off work, but then I got omicron instead. (lol) The first two shots put me out for 8 days total. Should I put myself through that again in the off chance that I might get sick from a variant that I've already contracted? What's maddening is that some people still tell me I should get the booster anyway.
Please research the effectiveness of the vaccine against Omicron. The data I've seen suggest a negative effectiveness against Omicron after a few weeks post vaccination.
I had to check (twice) to make sure I was reading Vinay's newsletter and not someone else's!
I'm so grateful for Vinay's ongoing advocacy for evidence-based policy and for his willingness to state that the emperor has no clothes when appropriate (which has been often in recent months).
The study referenced in this slide covered 4.6M people (~half of Israel) from 30 July - 06 October 2021 (~10 weeks). Here is a link to the preprint:
You probably already know that several preprints/peer-reviewed publications have analyzed clinical myocarditis data (the first of which looked at Israel, I think) in an effort to estimate the rates of this side effect (on the order of 1 in 3k in young men in the high-risk group, I think).
It sounds like you are coming to the realization that discussion of this sort of thing is being suppressed in the media (or at least on TV). Sadly, the news coverage I've seen has been closer to wartime propaganda than objective journalism. Look into the Trusted News Initiative if you haven't already.
...the Federation of State Medical Boards recently felt compelled to issue a stark warning to medical professionals:
“Physicians who generate and spread COVID-19 vaccine misinformation or disinformation are risking disciplinary action by state medical boards, including the suspension or revocation of their medical license.”
I know - you are right. I am all but certain that this is being buried. When Dr. V says that public trust will take a generation to fix, this is what it looks like. I don't believe a word that the US CDC / FDA / NIH / NIAID says anymore; and this despite the fact that my rational brain says that they can't be lying about EVERYTHING, but it doesn't matter. These are the people chasing my kids with needles, forcing them in masks, and holding a generation of our youth hostage to... something.
We are in a page of history that's being written and all I can see is "foe"
In Estonia there are ~855k people vaccinated with 2 doses as per Estonian official media infograph: https://www.err.ee (on the right side) . Haven't checked the data myself but since we also have mandates (cannot do sports OUTSIDE without being vaccinated, this also goes for youth 12-18) I would guess this figure is about right.
And we have at least ONE confirmed death of 24 year old boy. By confirmed I mean Estonian HEALTH AUTHORITIES have done an autopsy and decided the cause of death was myocarditis after vaccination (~10 days or smth.) with second dose. This boy had a previously known heart arythmia problem for which he had not taken the time to go to cardiologist. But he DID take the time to go and get a vaccine. I wonder why? And well ... he died.
So from anectotal evidence (this should be as good as latest CDC studies I guess) vaccines kill with myocarditis ~1/800k (this was already ~3 months ago so vacced numbers were actually smaller then) in Estonia retrospectively.
Of course optimist would say that they saved many more. I say COVID vaccine MANDATES are unethical because they don't account for personal differences - but humans ARE different - and thus cause for some too much harm which does NOT weigh over the good they do.
PS: I would estimate ~1 milj. Estonian speaking people in the world and now we have one less - directly because of vaccine
Implicit in the "even 1 in a million will tip the scale" assertion is that the harm of myocarditis in that group is roughly as serious as the harm from "severe disease" from Covid (I guess if it's half as serious then 1 in a million will balance the scale). Seems reasonable, but perhaps good to make that explicit.
Aside from the fact that all data that shows a benefit from boosting is specific to elderly and or risk factors (the large cdc study this fall showed no severe cases in those with zero risk factors) OR blends those with risks and those without risks continues to be exasperating. Risk factors matter- they may still not matter much for a 20 yr old (the evidence that has broken out risk factors from a large Israeli study showed 75% of severe cases were in people with 3 or more risk factors. Why are scientists not pushing for stratified data?
And Jan 7 cdc mmrw report- which has now been ignored by the cdc in lieu of 3 new studies that show boosters help but which includes no data on health conditions and lumps ages 18-64 and 65+. Sept Israeli data even showed that the 20x benefit of boost was mostly in 80+ (huge impact,eg I think 15% of breakthroughs were severe cut to 8%- unfortunately still not zero), large impact in age 70-79. In age 60-69 cut the risk from 2% to 1% (can argue that’s meaningful but this data had no health status so reasonable to assume based on the other studies that those are 60-69 year olds with a risk factor.
Here’s a quote from the cdc mmwr in jan “ Among 1,228,664 persons who completed primary vaccination during December 2020–October 2021, severe COVID-19–associated outcomes (0.015%) or death (0.0033%) were rare. Risk factors for severe outcomes included age ≥65 years, immunosuppressed, and six other underlying conditions. All persons with severe outcomes had at least one risk factor; 78% of persons who died had at least four.”
The UK data shows a number of people over 70 dying who are unvaccinated. Those > 70 that are unvaccinated are likely in no condition to receive a vaccination. Fun with numbers.
This should change the narrative, but when you control everything that 30-60% of the population sees, you don't need truth to be on your side.
In the past week I’ve read two posts on our local mom’s group asking how soon they can get their teenage sons boosted after their recent Covid infection. “10 days? Great!” I tried quoting Paul Offit but I think they assumed he’s just some random anti-vaxxer. 😂 People have lost it.
My new tact is to say nothing and people can take the risk they want. (Sadly, most just don’t realize it). However, I do need scientists and doctors to keep pushing this because mandates are insane. For example, luckily not my teen, but her 16 yr old friend is going on a trip this summer (female, so prob low risk of myocarditis but super athlete and given how it’s been swept under the rug, I no longer trust i know about 1 in 100k risks- which is what I care about for a boost after being fully protected against severe disease w/ 2 doses). Here’s the story-
Teen has to have a boost to go on trip this summer. For teens who get boosted in jan/Feb for a trip in June, the benefit, which is a temporary reduction in getting any infection, will have dissipated. (Again, her initial vax has brought this healthy teens risk to near zero of a severe outcome). If the goal of the boost was to minimize trip disruptions (kids having to miss it due to covid, kids getting covid and ruining trip while away), then they should require the boost 4-6 weeks ahead! (Per Paul offit, 3-4 months of that extra protection against any infection, but a UK study showed that efficacy waned from 75% at week 3-4 to 35% Pfizer/45% moderna by week 10 so that’s 2.5 months). (By the way, I did just get boosted myself so that I have peak protection for an upcoming trip but my teen who was vaccinated in June will take her chances with covid and we can try to be more cautious the week before the trip to avoid ruining the trip). This is insanity - behavior driven by the inconvenience of getting covid, not a fear of severe outcomes! (And another big study just showed long covid rates for those vaxxed are the same as those who never had covid, so baseline - I would include long covid as a severe outcome).
My college is mandating boosters for spring semester. I got a waiver since I'm in an online-only program, but even then I had to jump through some hoops. Students in on-campus programs but taking online classes must still get the booster to stay enrolled. Madness.
How can a school mandate vaccines if they don't mitigate (or just barely mitigate) transmission?
Just guessing......the CDC would interpret this to mean you are 6x more likely to get severe illness w/o the booster.
I love how statistics and percentages can be manipulated. 600% more likely to get severe illness! But what if your chance of severe illness was like 1 in 10,000 to begin with?
(By the way, I'm inferring that you're saying the CDC would translate the data for its own agenda.)
From the beginning I was thinking it was nuts to mandate vaccinations. For my demographic (30-39 years old), there have been about 15,000 deaths out of a total population of over 40,000,000. That's a 0.04% chance of death if I have covid. But that's a crude estimate. I'm a fit person with no known underlying health issues, get plenty of vitamin D-producing sunlight even in the winter because I'm in Southern CA, eat reasonably well, get sleep, etc. Considering that the overwhelming majority of deaths, especially in young people, have happened in those with multiple underlying conditions, I'd say my chance of dying IF I got covid was maybe 0.02 or 0.01%. And then there's the fact that much of these covid deaths occurred pre-omicron. So now with an even less dangerous variant circulating, what's my chance of dying now? 0.001%? (By the way, I got covid at the end of December 2021. My reaction to the first 2 doses of Pfizer were magnitudes worse.)
Anyway, my point is, sure, I could reduce my chances of getting severe disease or death by maybe 50% if I got the booster shot. But what's 50% of an already minuscule chance?
Oh dear, looking at numbers are you? Few really understand their personal risk. When I see someone say the IFR is xyz, I ask what is the IFR for a woman, aged 40, an average person? You stated it: ~ 0.04% which is similar to seasonal flu.
Yes, boosting males under 30 is NUTS.
But let's also admit that having conniption fits over pushing boosters on healthy 40-60 is also pretty pointless!
And now there’s todays NYT!! So infuriating- again blended data that includes inmunocomp and people with risk factors! They even say “if immunocomp or elderly, risk even higher “. But that means someone has to be lower than average to get to an average across all pop. They later in this mornings newsletter show that young democrats are more worried about severe disease than older democrats- and there’s no comment to say how irrational it is for healthy young people who have immunity (often vaxxed plus covid and/or boost) to fear a severe outcome!
“ Irrational skepticism
The C.D.C. has begun to publish data on Covid outcomes among people who have received booster shots, and the numbers are striking:
Based on 25 U.S. jurisdictions. | Source: C.D.C.
As you can see, vaccination without a booster provides a lot of protection. But a booster takes somebody to a different level.”
Link. (Again no more references to the jan 2022 cdc report that is the one time risk factors were taken into consideration).
https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20220131&instance_id=51759&nl=the-morning&productCode=NN®i_id=93629527&segment_id=81212&te=1&uri=nyt%3A%2F%2Fnewsletter%2Fb20b8cfc-f249-54a3-af68-06147bdefdd2&user_id=8978af0744a47fcf41505a05270aee48
It'll be interesting to see how all that "fear of death" anxiety shortens their lives. In a decade or two, we'll have data on how many died of early heart failure.
If this gets borne out by the data, it's a big deal.
Btw is it only me or does it seem like a bunch of people have dropped dead after the 3rd booster? The WSJ film critic guy, the Canadian cardiologist, the NY Times Wirecutter Editor, etc. Maybe the myocarditis thing will be more than just with young men, when we take into account boosters?
Thank you for always being straightforward and honest. I feel that those who NEED to hear this directly maybe aren't reading your Substacks?! Ironic! We can only continue to share and hope! Its mind blowing that boosters have been widely recc. for ANYONE male or female who are healthy below age 40 at best. I wonder if you will be open to researching just the myocarditis incidences maybe just even in your own state of CA....from the point that boosters were recc. in a 6mo time frame? Is there a way to pick 20 major hospitals in the state or some way of gathering data on this one item from all? It would be super interesting to see records of the # of myocarditis from those ages 40 and below in all of 2018 and 2019....and then the # from when boosters were recc to the present. Blow it up! Sure some would have occurred anyway....but it would be great to see what has gone on? What was the age spread? Can we look at this in real life? Are you open to chatting with any of these folks you may find in your area who are young and endured this side effect? You can really affect booster reccs positively by continuing to raise awareness on this safety signal! Thank you!
I think another issue is the cognitive dissonance people have. I've shown plenty of people raw data from summer 2020 and they usually just go along with what CNN or other MSM outlets spout. Some people agree with me about the fear mongering, but then they just kind of throw their hands up and say something like "isn't it easier to just get the jab?" or "it's easier to just go along" or "it's not a big deal".
Same. Here in Madison, WI we have the most highly vaccinated county in WI. Several months ago my neighbors with healthy 12-16yr old boys were running to get them a booster. I cringed. Did they get detailed well thought out advice from their Pediatrician first? Just advice from the TV? Did they has tough questions and then conclude it was still better? Our school District partnered with a local hospital system and held a pop up clinic for boosters for any teacher/staff who wanted one on the 1st day they became available....it was held stupidly on a Monday....the remainder of the week into the following week classes all over the district had to be on a "modified learning" schedule due to a HUGE # of teachers "out sick" or present but unable to teach at their full capacity. 1 I know was out for a full week she was so sick.
Apparently, your immune system is at great risk for a period after the vaccine administration (initial or boost). Not sure why this detail isn't widely known. After the shot, a person should be extra careful for a unknown period.
Good point about people being out sick from the boosters.
I was considering getting a booster over the holidays so I wouldn't have to take time off work, but then I got omicron instead. (lol) The first two shots put me out for 8 days total. Should I put myself through that again in the off chance that I might get sick from a variant that I've already contracted? What's maddening is that some people still tell me I should get the booster anyway.
Please research the effectiveness of the vaccine against Omicron. The data I've seen suggest a negative effectiveness against Omicron after a few weeks post vaccination.
I had to check (twice) to make sure I was reading Vinay's newsletter and not someone else's!
I'm so grateful for Vinay's ongoing advocacy for evidence-based policy and for his willingness to state that the emperor has no clothes when appropriate (which has been often in recent months).
The study referenced in this slide covered 4.6M people (~half of Israel) from 30 July - 06 October 2021 (~10 weeks). Here is a link to the preprint:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.07.21264626v1.full.pdf
So, where is the signal then? Where are the young men on TV with heart issues? There should be dozens if not hundreds in Israel alone.
Or are those montages of athletes dropping dead all we have?
Or is the signal being suppressed and censored, lest said backlash be so terrifying that its being snuffed out at the source?
You probably already know that several preprints/peer-reviewed publications have analyzed clinical myocarditis data (the first of which looked at Israel, I think) in an effort to estimate the rates of this side effect (on the order of 1 in 3k in young men in the high-risk group, I think).
It sounds like you are coming to the realization that discussion of this sort of thing is being suppressed in the media (or at least on TV). Sadly, the news coverage I've seen has been closer to wartime propaganda than objective journalism. Look into the Trusted News Initiative if you haven't already.
Then there is the question of whether doctors can comment freely (https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-08-16/doctors-coronavirus-misinformation-license):
-----------------------
...the Federation of State Medical Boards recently felt compelled to issue a stark warning to medical professionals:
“Physicians who generate and spread COVID-19 vaccine misinformation or disinformation are risking disciplinary action by state medical boards, including the suspension or revocation of their medical license.”
I know - you are right. I am all but certain that this is being buried. When Dr. V says that public trust will take a generation to fix, this is what it looks like. I don't believe a word that the US CDC / FDA / NIH / NIAID says anymore; and this despite the fact that my rational brain says that they can't be lying about EVERYTHING, but it doesn't matter. These are the people chasing my kids with needles, forcing them in masks, and holding a generation of our youth hostage to... something.
We are in a page of history that's being written and all I can see is "foe"
In Estonia there are ~855k people vaccinated with 2 doses as per Estonian official media infograph: https://www.err.ee (on the right side) . Haven't checked the data myself but since we also have mandates (cannot do sports OUTSIDE without being vaccinated, this also goes for youth 12-18) I would guess this figure is about right.
And we have at least ONE confirmed death of 24 year old boy. By confirmed I mean Estonian HEALTH AUTHORITIES have done an autopsy and decided the cause of death was myocarditis after vaccination (~10 days or smth.) with second dose. This boy had a previously known heart arythmia problem for which he had not taken the time to go to cardiologist. But he DID take the time to go and get a vaccine. I wonder why? And well ... he died.
So from anectotal evidence (this should be as good as latest CDC studies I guess) vaccines kill with myocarditis ~1/800k (this was already ~3 months ago so vacced numbers were actually smaller then) in Estonia retrospectively.
Of course optimist would say that they saved many more. I say COVID vaccine MANDATES are unethical because they don't account for personal differences - but humans ARE different - and thus cause for some too much harm which does NOT weigh over the good they do.
PS: I would estimate ~1 milj. Estonian speaking people in the world and now we have one less - directly because of vaccine
Thank you for that
Implicit in the "even 1 in a million will tip the scale" assertion is that the harm of myocarditis in that group is roughly as serious as the harm from "severe disease" from Covid (I guess if it's half as serious then 1 in a million will balance the scale). Seems reasonable, but perhaps good to make that explicit.
Can't thank you enough for your commitment and clarity. Now we just need to get the word out about VP so that the world can get this message.
I’d like to see the unvaxxed severe disease numbers in 16-39s too. Still think one Pfizer dose - or prior recovery- ought to suffice for teen boys.
Aside from the fact that all data that shows a benefit from boosting is specific to elderly and or risk factors (the large cdc study this fall showed no severe cases in those with zero risk factors) OR blends those with risks and those without risks continues to be exasperating. Risk factors matter- they may still not matter much for a 20 yr old (the evidence that has broken out risk factors from a large Israeli study showed 75% of severe cases were in people with 3 or more risk factors. Why are scientists not pushing for stratified data?
https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2821%2902249-2
And Jan 7 cdc mmrw report- which has now been ignored by the cdc in lieu of 3 new studies that show boosters help but which includes no data on health conditions and lumps ages 18-64 and 65+. Sept Israeli data even showed that the 20x benefit of boost was mostly in 80+ (huge impact,eg I think 15% of breakthroughs were severe cut to 8%- unfortunately still not zero), large impact in age 70-79. In age 60-69 cut the risk from 2% to 1% (can argue that’s meaningful but this data had no health status so reasonable to assume based on the other studies that those are 60-69 year olds with a risk factor.
Here’s a quote from the cdc mmwr in jan “ Among 1,228,664 persons who completed primary vaccination during December 2020–October 2021, severe COVID-19–associated outcomes (0.015%) or death (0.0033%) were rare. Risk factors for severe outcomes included age ≥65 years, immunosuppressed, and six other underlying conditions. All persons with severe outcomes had at least one risk factor; 78% of persons who died had at least four.”
The UK data shows a number of people over 70 dying who are unvaccinated. Those > 70 that are unvaccinated are likely in no condition to receive a vaccination. Fun with numbers.
Law of unintended consequences.