The internet is once again angry that Emily Oster, Brown Professor of Economics, is saying obvious things. Here is the latest quote: Of course, she is right. First of all, uptake for vaccine in the 5 to 11 year old group is already slow. Second, other nations think differently about the benefit/ risk balance of widespread vaccination of healthy 5 to 11 year olds, given high rates of seroprevalence (btw it is even harder to make someone who already recovered, better off), and the fact the mRNA vaccine is not for the current circulating strain but an older ancestral strain. But put all that aside, because Prof Oster’s point is about a 4 year old.
"That doesn't mean the vaccine isn't a good idea for both"
Says who? Its been now 9 months or so since the 5-11, and even the 12-17 vaccine can of worms opened. I have yet to see ONE convincing argument to vaccinate healthy kids. And I'm 2x Pfizered so I'm not some anti vaxx nut. I am still waiting to find it. Studies showing "relative risk reduction" from "negligible" to "REALLY negligible" are not good enough!
Vinay, I know you do not read these comments which is too bad. But I think one of the issues is that there are too few voices that have a platform that are heard on this. You are one of the few with medical credibility that has been careful to not be labeled a "kook" (even though most of those so labeled are not kooks.) (And I am ignoring your "bioplausible" view on masks which you must know is wrong. Masking has only served to show the general populace in a more-obvious-way-than-vaccines that they are being lied to.)
Sadly, the counter-voice, the American Academy of Pediatrics (they should all be de-licensed) has a big trumpet. Clearly the organization is in someone's pocket, but the fact that most of the practitioners blindly follow through is very disappointing to say the least.
Perhaps you can organize a group of academics and practitioners (happy to join) who will, with some strength in numbers, come down hard on how broken this all is....as was said in The Lion King "It is time". I have no trouble anymore offending my erstwhile peers who are wrong...someone has to do it. The GBD (wish you had signed it -- it had 90% correct stuff which was WAY better than the 0% correct stuff we have had instead) had 50,000 mostly physicians sign it. I'll bet we could do that again. Just a thought.
Finally, for those not up with the pediatric immunization question, there is nothing difficult about this particular question at all. Virtually no other country is going down this path. The ONLY reason the pharmas and their government collaborators so desperately want the children to be added to the vaccine schedule is because this then gives a complete liability exclusion to Pfizer/Moderna.
Until the children are added, there is a liability gap when the drug comes off EUA...which, despite there being an "approved" med it never has because of this issue...even though it is illegal to give an EUA drug when there is an approved drug available. They will keep on giving us the "emergency" (anyone see any emergencies regarding this lately?) dose because the EUA drug is also liability excluded until they get the pediatric patients in line for side-effects-without-benefits...I guarantee it. If children never get approved (unlikely in the current completely captured political machine) there will never be a non-EUA vaccine, either. Liability protection for the manufacturer is driving this ENTIRELY non-medical decision. It is beyond stupid...it is shameful.
We cannot vote these people out fast enough. Further, we need people we vote in who will make it a high priority to dismantle the very-captured/very-broken FDA/CDC/NIH axes and recraft them in a way that they are immune (at least more immune) from political pressure. Dismantling bureaucracy is the thing the federal government likes to do least...this will take some real political courage. I hope it can be found. The day the CDC disappears will be a great leap forward for public health in this country. Lots of good people there -- impossibly politicized leadership. And the leaders call the messaging.
In any case, thanks for continuing to hammer on all this.
It’s really frustrating because all the people that share her views are too afraid to speak out. The Twitter mob is a viscous place. Liberal elites will pay dearly in the coming election. People are sick and tired of the fear mongering going on and they will vote against them.
It is all obvious stuff as you put it. But that's the insanity of it all. Why can't a huge portion of sane people process this? The Ceti-Alpha-Five fear-mongering brainworm by MSM notwithstanding! 😁
The official message to shame those who chose to wait or not vaccinate has and continues to do great harm. I believe in the long run it will harm all vaccine uptake.
By and large we are not following the data which tells us vaccines are not stopping the spread and that they provide varying degrees of protection to different groups of people. That to me equals choice not coercion. And hurling insults at people is coercion. People who use “anti vaxxed” “trumper” “conspiracy theorist” “fringe” “nut job” had this instilled in them from early on in the vaccine roll out. Articles in the NYTimes like “Nation Faces ‘hand-to-hand combat’ to get reluctant Americans vaccinated” or The New Yorkers Daily Shout: “Fashionable ways to let people know you’re vaccinated and not a maskless asshole” (I am not making these up) fueled the name calling vitriolic battle. The White House’s “dark winter for the unvaccinated” proved wrong but it was a booster shot in the arm for the vitriol. This shit needs to stop right along with the lies about what the vaccine can do.
Unfortunately all of our vaccine policy has and continues to be preordained. Maybe because the US government spent too much money on them and now we are stuck with a pile of them in the freezer that needs to be justified by jabbing them into an arm.
The discussion about vaccination now should follow what Dr Oster said: personal risk or choice. And that message should come from the top.
Thanks for this post, and especially the PS. It’s well past time to be MORE FIRM and DIRECT! I’ve loved your channel and substack for awhile now. I know you are a busy man(!!) and apparently you don’t read your comments(?) but really, this platform especially feels like it can and should have a bit more of a conversational feel. Not that I expect you to read alllllllll comments, but thinking you don’t read ANY of them (as you have said), is disappointing. The commenters have so much to offer, and the other substacks I follow (even those with thousands of followers!) receive some level of engagement with the authors. Open debate and discourse are so important, and We The People out here are worth listening to too. It might inform or flavour some of your thoughts and pieces.
Either way, keep up the wonderful work. I know you must be walking a fine line.
Data arriving about repeated re-infections among the vaccinated in the UK and Israel need careful attention before any further vaccinations. Commentary here indicate the IFR for a those below certain ages never warranted much of what has been done to protect us and eventually the authorities must admit error. Can't know the real motivations for those wishing to damage children by vaccination but the effort should stop.
Also it’s simply just not worth it and somewhat irresponsible to never reconsider killing all goodwill around attitudes of vaccination for a pandemic we initially feared was going to be MUCH deadlier. We all got incredibly lucky to have this virus spare the youngest as it’s particularly devastating on a “we lost our past and our future.”
Faith in vaccine was on borrowed credit from the medical community usually doing a GREAT job with this and so we had to force and ban people to prevent them all from trying to cut in line (not very kind but in terms of “motivated” it’s a dream come true to have your good thing be “patience this is *temporarily limited supply* (rumors of shortage always boost flu vaccine uptake).
It’s such a disaster to enternally dig in (regardless of how correct you are) if you are burning bridges that will be needed for it there’s a greater emergency! I thought for sure nobody would be so incompetent as to demand a mandate OR else (they could have let Biden pitch it as “not worth the effort” and a prudent “focus on people who want to help” or whatever let’s it be “not a failure because we weren’t trying to win.”
It’s the “if we mandate and force the children’s MMR vaccine during this autism panic are we possibly going to just make parents more paranoid and we will lose the fence-sitters” reason why backing off when the (mostly libs!) had their anti-vax panic (and it was good not to ban them from facebook because it then became “cool” for younger kids to show their sass in pointing how OBVIOUSLY EVERYONE KNOWS VACCINES ARE SAFE!” and antivaxxers seemed less principled when there all infighting as all intense Facebook groups do.
Nearly all of these “crazy unhinged moms” eventually came back on their own time in less than 2 years pretty much totally normal which means they weren’t actually crazy (just incredibly stubborn!) so anyone doubling down on “but they’re so crazy and reckless” likely won’t be vindicixated!
Thank you this was my rant but mostly the TLDR is “I really respect and appreciate anyone who is dodging these minefields in the hope it helps future us because this is a very difficult position to navigate as a lone speaker!)
"That doesn't mean the vaccine isn't a good idea for both"
Says who? Its been now 9 months or so since the 5-11, and even the 12-17 vaccine can of worms opened. I have yet to see ONE convincing argument to vaccinate healthy kids. And I'm 2x Pfizered so I'm not some anti vaxx nut. I am still waiting to find it. Studies showing "relative risk reduction" from "negligible" to "REALLY negligible" are not good enough!
Vinay, I know you do not read these comments which is too bad. But I think one of the issues is that there are too few voices that have a platform that are heard on this. You are one of the few with medical credibility that has been careful to not be labeled a "kook" (even though most of those so labeled are not kooks.) (And I am ignoring your "bioplausible" view on masks which you must know is wrong. Masking has only served to show the general populace in a more-obvious-way-than-vaccines that they are being lied to.)
Sadly, the counter-voice, the American Academy of Pediatrics (they should all be de-licensed) has a big trumpet. Clearly the organization is in someone's pocket, but the fact that most of the practitioners blindly follow through is very disappointing to say the least.
Perhaps you can organize a group of academics and practitioners (happy to join) who will, with some strength in numbers, come down hard on how broken this all is....as was said in The Lion King "It is time". I have no trouble anymore offending my erstwhile peers who are wrong...someone has to do it. The GBD (wish you had signed it -- it had 90% correct stuff which was WAY better than the 0% correct stuff we have had instead) had 50,000 mostly physicians sign it. I'll bet we could do that again. Just a thought.
Finally, for those not up with the pediatric immunization question, there is nothing difficult about this particular question at all. Virtually no other country is going down this path. The ONLY reason the pharmas and their government collaborators so desperately want the children to be added to the vaccine schedule is because this then gives a complete liability exclusion to Pfizer/Moderna.
Until the children are added, there is a liability gap when the drug comes off EUA...which, despite there being an "approved" med it never has because of this issue...even though it is illegal to give an EUA drug when there is an approved drug available. They will keep on giving us the "emergency" (anyone see any emergencies regarding this lately?) dose because the EUA drug is also liability excluded until they get the pediatric patients in line for side-effects-without-benefits...I guarantee it. If children never get approved (unlikely in the current completely captured political machine) there will never be a non-EUA vaccine, either. Liability protection for the manufacturer is driving this ENTIRELY non-medical decision. It is beyond stupid...it is shameful.
We cannot vote these people out fast enough. Further, we need people we vote in who will make it a high priority to dismantle the very-captured/very-broken FDA/CDC/NIH axes and recraft them in a way that they are immune (at least more immune) from political pressure. Dismantling bureaucracy is the thing the federal government likes to do least...this will take some real political courage. I hope it can be found. The day the CDC disappears will be a great leap forward for public health in this country. Lots of good people there -- impossibly politicized leadership. And the leaders call the messaging.
In any case, thanks for continuing to hammer on all this.
It’s really frustrating because all the people that share her views are too afraid to speak out. The Twitter mob is a viscous place. Liberal elites will pay dearly in the coming election. People are sick and tired of the fear mongering going on and they will vote against them.
It is all obvious stuff as you put it. But that's the insanity of it all. Why can't a huge portion of sane people process this? The Ceti-Alpha-Five fear-mongering brainworm by MSM notwithstanding! 😁
The official message to shame those who chose to wait or not vaccinate has and continues to do great harm. I believe in the long run it will harm all vaccine uptake.
By and large we are not following the data which tells us vaccines are not stopping the spread and that they provide varying degrees of protection to different groups of people. That to me equals choice not coercion. And hurling insults at people is coercion. People who use “anti vaxxed” “trumper” “conspiracy theorist” “fringe” “nut job” had this instilled in them from early on in the vaccine roll out. Articles in the NYTimes like “Nation Faces ‘hand-to-hand combat’ to get reluctant Americans vaccinated” or The New Yorkers Daily Shout: “Fashionable ways to let people know you’re vaccinated and not a maskless asshole” (I am not making these up) fueled the name calling vitriolic battle. The White House’s “dark winter for the unvaccinated” proved wrong but it was a booster shot in the arm for the vitriol. This shit needs to stop right along with the lies about what the vaccine can do.
Unfortunately all of our vaccine policy has and continues to be preordained. Maybe because the US government spent too much money on them and now we are stuck with a pile of them in the freezer that needs to be justified by jabbing them into an arm.
The discussion about vaccination now should follow what Dr Oster said: personal risk or choice. And that message should come from the top.
Thanks for this post, and especially the PS. It’s well past time to be MORE FIRM and DIRECT! I’ve loved your channel and substack for awhile now. I know you are a busy man(!!) and apparently you don’t read your comments(?) but really, this platform especially feels like it can and should have a bit more of a conversational feel. Not that I expect you to read alllllllll comments, but thinking you don’t read ANY of them (as you have said), is disappointing. The commenters have so much to offer, and the other substacks I follow (even those with thousands of followers!) receive some level of engagement with the authors. Open debate and discourse are so important, and We The People out here are worth listening to too. It might inform or flavour some of your thoughts and pieces.
Either way, keep up the wonderful work. I know you must be walking a fine line.
Data arriving about repeated re-infections among the vaccinated in the UK and Israel need careful attention before any further vaccinations. Commentary here indicate the IFR for a those below certain ages never warranted much of what has been done to protect us and eventually the authorities must admit error. Can't know the real motivations for those wishing to damage children by vaccination but the effort should stop.
Awesome, as always.
Also it’s simply just not worth it and somewhat irresponsible to never reconsider killing all goodwill around attitudes of vaccination for a pandemic we initially feared was going to be MUCH deadlier. We all got incredibly lucky to have this virus spare the youngest as it’s particularly devastating on a “we lost our past and our future.”
Faith in vaccine was on borrowed credit from the medical community usually doing a GREAT job with this and so we had to force and ban people to prevent them all from trying to cut in line (not very kind but in terms of “motivated” it’s a dream come true to have your good thing be “patience this is *temporarily limited supply* (rumors of shortage always boost flu vaccine uptake).
It’s such a disaster to enternally dig in (regardless of how correct you are) if you are burning bridges that will be needed for it there’s a greater emergency! I thought for sure nobody would be so incompetent as to demand a mandate OR else (they could have let Biden pitch it as “not worth the effort” and a prudent “focus on people who want to help” or whatever let’s it be “not a failure because we weren’t trying to win.”
It’s the “if we mandate and force the children’s MMR vaccine during this autism panic are we possibly going to just make parents more paranoid and we will lose the fence-sitters” reason why backing off when the (mostly libs!) had their anti-vax panic (and it was good not to ban them from facebook because it then became “cool” for younger kids to show their sass in pointing how OBVIOUSLY EVERYONE KNOWS VACCINES ARE SAFE!” and antivaxxers seemed less principled when there all infighting as all intense Facebook groups do.
Nearly all of these “crazy unhinged moms” eventually came back on their own time in less than 2 years pretty much totally normal which means they weren’t actually crazy (just incredibly stubborn!) so anyone doubling down on “but they’re so crazy and reckless” likely won’t be vindicixated!
Thank you this was my rant but mostly the TLDR is “I really respect and appreciate anyone who is dodging these minefields in the hope it helps future us because this is a very difficult position to navigate as a lone speaker!)