98 Comments

Dr Prasad, thank you for a sobering and terrifying assessment of our current situation. I have read and heard your views on the high price we are already paying for decisions regarding our education system. How easily, all in the name of safety as you mention, we have allowed the politicization of our children lives and futures to occur. I hope you will keep writing and speaking out. Please.

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I think about this a lot, how much blindness there seems to be to the precedents we are establishing. Since the pandemic started, I've heard a useful rule expressed something like: "imagine this government power, for which you are advocating, in the hands of someone you hate. Because eventually someone you hate will be in charge, and that same power will belong to them."

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That is such a good point. "Do unto others as you would have them do unto you" is sort of the inverse principle as we think through these issues.

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It is difficult for me to understand how safety has become the highest virtue when humans having children will always carry a risk of death. Will we become so obsessed with safety that we ban pregnancy as it could kill a woman and cause severe psychological distress to those around her? That's preposterous. Then, how is it that we've denied children an education and are now denying healthcare and livelihoods by firing nurses who have natural immunity? I'd say we are well on the way to totalitarianism and we will not deviate from that course until freedom again becomes a virtue higher than safety.

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Some commenters are saying we are already there, but I don't think we could yet call our government totalitarian or say that we have lost all our freedoms (and I live in WA, one of the most restrictive and I am facing job loss due to a vaccine mandate, so I don't say this lightly. We are still freer than many in the world). I greatly appreciate this article and its honest assessment.

My one push-back is that I don't see this taking 25 years to complete. Even the example you gave for Hitler was only 10 years. And we are already 2 years into this, and facing (I think) far greater numbers of powerful elites pushing things onward, using far more powerful propaganda tools and coordinated suppression of dissidents, both overt and subtle.

I see us as a "soft totalitarian" govt. within the next few years unless....somehow...... the tide turns.

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Vinay, Thank you for sharing this. One of the reasons I follow you even though we are on politically opposite sides is that you try to be intellectually honest. I respect that, and I like to hear opinions that don't parrot mine. I think there is a large political overlap at the grassroots in concern about the potential future that you're describing. I'd love to hear your thoughts on what limits or obstacles could be put in place to prevent this. How do we balance the ability to move quickly in the face of a truly dangerous health issue, but prevent a small oligarchy from drumming up or overstating a problem to seize power?

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Jim, in guise of a reply to your very pertinent question, here's what I recently posted on Bad Cattitude, the fascinating substack of the brilliant El Gato Malo. Apologies, because It's about as pessimistic as can be, but here it is anyway.

"Blocking the way (to solutions) is a totally anachronistic Constitution (yes, it's awesome and historic, but still an anachronism). Moreover, a formidable series of additional blocks are provided by 50 equally anachronistic state constitutions (am guessing here, have only dipped into one state's constitution, but it's a mess and I suspect the others are as well).

"So for my two cents, the USA is in an unstoppable downward spiral. Reform is just too impossible. Look, even an Equal Rights Amendment has been in the waiting room for over 50 years (some will even hark back 98 years, to its first incarnation).

"The situation in many European countries seems a bit more hopeful, because most have more constitutional flexibility, thanks to the post-WW2 reboot.

"But for the US, even if a significant majority of the people wanted serious changes to how the country is run, the obstacles presented by Old 1778 would make it mission impossible.

"So I think that in the US, it will ultimately be as in so many Latin American countries - somebody tries to take over (and maybe succeeds), the Constitution is suspended, the people don't mind, and the dice start rolling.

"You can't hear my sigh. But it's a real one."

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This is a well-reasoned, coherent piece and, of course, you’ll be energetically roasted for it on social media. Quite ironic, because you are much more optimistic than many people (self included) about the future of the USA.

Sad to say, too many folks think simply that the test of a ‘democracy’ is whether you can cast a vote for your ‘leaders’ every few years. They don’t think it’s possible that elected leaders could turn out to be bad people, and could purposely undermine ‘democratic’ institutions.

They don’t believe an American leader could coldly and deliberately take away hard-won rights and freedoms from other Americans.

And when you think about it, you realize that if that actually happened, a majority of people probably wouldn’t even blink. Most folks, sorry to say, don’t care deeply about rights and freedoms, unless their personal r’s and f’s are suddenly removed. If it’s simply about someone else’s r’s and f’s...well, too bad for them. As they used to say in England, ‘I’m alright, Jack.’

So the question of ‘Could it happen here?’ is not the right question. Because, of course, it could happen anywhere, in any country. Frequently does. The real question is: ‘Would people care?’

Alas, I don’t think many would.

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Be specific.

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Sorry - which points would you like me to be more specific about? I'll do my best.

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Thank you for your thoughtful contribution. Nothing is more terrifying than this. Once it’s gone there’s no going back. I will sadly admit I’m pretty hopeless.

There is too many that don’t see the slippery slope.

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Worse yet is the ever-increasing level of technological sophistication in the tools of governance and industry that makes any totalitarian system much more complete in its degree of social control, and that's a genie that can't be put back in the bottle.

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Yes, so true

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I feel the same.

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Oct 3, 2021
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I do not think he takes that lightly and this is a virus hopefully we will not see in the future, but there are 331 million people in the US. Ask yourself at what number will you become China

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Denise, that's not China. That's being civilized. Many parts of Europe and Scandinavia have similar public health measures. If you think that is China, you have no idea what China is like. Also, your iPhone tracks you and knows you more than you know yourself. Convenience and safety do have trade-offs, however, a trade-off from being dead from a preventable virus (given vaccines) at this point is an extremely reasonable one.

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Funny that Europe only masks over the age of 6 and most do not do until 12. Funny how Europe does not mandate Vax for kids and if they want a shot they only get one. Funny how Europe does not threaten or close business if all their employees are not mandated.

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Oct 5, 2021
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Biden is trying to get OSHA to issue mandates that businesses with more than 100 employees mandate vaccinations. Those businesses presumably would be fined, potentially to the point of causing businesses to close. Some no doubt would. However, our Supreme Court is suggesting the mandates aren't about protecting workers, but trying to get around Congress' failure to legislate. Government agencies, like OSHA, are only meant to carry out laws enacted by Congress and signed by the President, not subvert the legal process as is being done by Biden.

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Oct 3, 2021
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Masks, lockdowns are now unprecedented. Last year, they were a hypothesis ...sort of... the pandemic hand book advised against lockdowns and 50 years of cdc data showed no use for masks with an aerosolized respiratory virus. So even last year, they were unprecedented. This year, the data is in and they have failed to do anything to protect us. Ridiculous to continue. They just distract from measures that actually work.

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They aren't unprecedented unless you ignore history. During the flu pandemic of 1918 there were mask mandates and forced closures of businesses in some cities.

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So you agree with masks outdoors in colleges that are over 85% vaccinated? Do you agree if he cites multiple science studies that natural immunity provides some immunity that he should be censored, maybe even fired? This is already happening

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not all of those deaths are from covid.

Please remember that in Feb 2020 we have a very unreliable test for positive covid

That test is still only about 80% accurate.

The CDC did not count any influenza deaths in 2020, and anyone that tested positive for covid in any death was counted as a covid death.

interestingly, the CDC has decided this past April (because those numbers were rapidly rising) to stop counting possible covid deaths

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Oct 5, 2021
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Well, let's see. At present the number of covid deaths for 2020 sits at "400,000" (roughly) I imagine the honest number is 165,000, or maybe 200,000. The country is huge and the inconsistencies of counting are so wildly incorrect. The covid test was very unreliable, many false positives, and a few false negatives, but there were victims of car accidents that tested positive for covid that were counted as a covid death!!! (I know this as a fact) and various other random deaths attributed to covid as well.

Okay, Arthur, I would put the number at about 200,000.

I have not checked, but what is the total number of covid deaths for the entirety of Europe, or a clump of countries over seas measuring the size of the US? Have you any idea?

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I think that's absurd based on a "hunch" without any backing evidence. There is no reason to believe that the way US measures COVID death is that different from the rest of the world (it isn't). And yes, we do know that the US per capita COVID death rate is currently ranked 19th WORST in the world. Europe is far lower. The data is easily found. Europe as a whole COVID death rate is about 22% lower than the US. Here's the dataset.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&minPopulationFilter=1000000&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&hideControls=true&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=NOR~KOR~GBR~USA~Europe

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I find that people have been in abject fear for some time. At first I thought the press was largely politically motivated but see they are both politically motivated and hungry for ad revenue. When I saw space suits in Wuhan hospitals (2019), I imagined they had troubles that likely couldn't be contained and bought some surgical masks & gloves. Then I saw the first US cases and knew the illness would spread but couldn't imagine how fast. It was sad that the typical containment measures normally used were rapidly failing. I began to use great caution in venturing outside. That seems so long ago.

Since then knowing my vulnerability, living past my expected time (at 82), I accepted the vaccine given favorable risk/reward calculations. I remain wary of public spaces and try to avoid crowed places. I feel it is my responsibility to keep myself safe. I care little what others do and expect them to act prudently. I feel our government's job is to keep us informed and to sponsor creation of virus countermeasures, like the vaccines and therapeutics. I see the various mitigation measures as largely failures in practice after looking at much too much data. Eventually we will be able to do the analyses to evaluate those measures. But it's been a disappointment to see governments never admit they don't know or any failures of policy - it seems they are incapable of that. It also has been a disappointment to see the virus used as a political wedge issue by all sides. It's a public health issue that is quite age dependant and government's heavy handed approach seem to ignore that fact confusing citizens in the process.

Sadly those asking the government to remove their fears can never be possible, no government can. Nature is more powerful than any government and the virus once in the wild is a force of nature. It will burn itself out eventually as have all similar threats to humans. Our evolution over time, perfecting a remarkable immune system, has survived many past threats. We may have a lot of casualties along the way, regrettable, but we are not likely to end the virus with any actions by government now the virus is everywhere.

Whether a future government can act in a future pandemic to create a loss of freedom remains to be seen. I'm not terrible fearful of the virus, I'v experienced worse. I suspect others are of the same mind. We are seeing quite a bit of kickback now and were the police state like Australia to arrive, I don't think Americans will obey. Given we have more guns than people, I doubt submission would be possible.

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Thank you for your voice, Dr. Prasad. I’m so sorry about the mob piling on. Keep speaking.

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A couple of reasons why you may get pushback from this article:

“3, The media is able to present vignettes or anecdotes about overwhelmed hospitals or the untimely death of a young person, without acknowledging the denominator or comparing the risk to other risks we accept.

4. The rise of social media corporations means that public dialog increasingly occurs in spaces that can be regulated.”

Currently, the vast majority of Americans have no idea what’s actually happening around the world and have a very distorted view of the virus and it’s risk to them and their families.

It’s terrifying that you can describe current events and some will say, “This could never happen.”

It already is.

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You're totally correct. It's always astonished me that so many Americans, probably the super vast majority, have practically no idea of what the rest of the world is like. And not just in regard to covid.

So many still seem to think that that US standards of living, healthcare, schooling, etc are unmatchable, and are the envy of the world. (They aren't. Haven't been, for decades.)

If truth be told, there are lots of countries quite a bit ahead of the US in these categories. In fact, in the World Population Review's assessment of Quality of Life (based on items such as purchasing power, healthcare, safety, pollution, etc.) the USA is a so-so 15th in the rankings.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/standard-of-living-by-country

Similarly, while most Americans consider the US to be the 'land of the free', the rankings by Freedom House org show that many countries seem to be considerably more free.

https://freedomhouse.org/countries/freedom-world/scores?sort=asc&order=Total%20Score%20and%20Status

And when it comes to covid, you're absolutely right. The hysteria in the US, and the many official incompetencies that have been on display for almost two years, are at world-class levels.

Hard to find an explanation for this endemic American unawareness of international realities. Perhaps it's inculcated into people from their grade school days, and reinforced year after year by the media, political parties, and wealthy celebrities.

Whatever. Re-educating the USA looks to be a very tough row to hoe.

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Thank you, HealthFreedomLA.

Dr Prasad, may I make a suggestion? Can you post a graph/chart that demonstrates the relative risk of severe illness/death among age groups. One that clearly demonstrates what we know to be true. Perhaps separately, post other info that presents the actual causes of deaths of younger people. I know this info is out there, but evidently we have all become so paralyzed by false fears that we are indeed complicit in the breakdown of our democracy and need repetition of this information. Again and again.

How does the truth compete with the 24/7 news cycle, social media, outsize government policies that prey on our worst fears and have us walking around outside with masks on. Yes, San Francisco is a particularly puzzling example of this craziness.

Help!

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Could not agree more. I have never seen people hate others or cut themselves out of a rational discussion of health care just because of politics. I feel we are losing our humanity

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Dear Dr Prasad,

I am not sure if you have seen a case of polio, tetanus, diphtheria, measles, immunocompromised child dying with varicella, and have you treated with our own skills. I worked in India, Many times I felt simple vaccination would saved the kid life.

Because you are in very safe environment , we know the vaccine preventable diseases are less prevalent in western countries due to high vaccination rate, access to vaccine, better housing, safe sanitation, safe water source..eVery thing would have contributed to the success story.

Coming to CoVID is very tricky - I read your article- your viewpoint is -you can accept the covid related morbidity and mortality- but most of physicians who are working in ICU and like me a general pediatrician cannot accept.

We know vaccine works and other mitigations work- but no one can quantify in each setting . I work in ambulatory respiratory clinic -we know the PPE and N 95 does do wonders. Or else we all would have covid, and some of us would have died.

We are educated and we should have moral responsibility towards our own health and health of fellow citizens. I believe at no point of time every one in the community can be immune to any disease. In a community we always have new babies born and they are naive to disease, same way our geriatric folks. The prevalence of disease would be very low if the most of population who are eligible would be vaccinated.

Covid is new , we all are learning everyday, So far we know vaccine works and personally I feel vaccinating and all mitigation methods would prevent covid morbidity and mortality in all age groups.

Very educated people like you are simply creating unnecessary controversies. Luckily the death rate with covid is 1-2 percent with present medical interventions. In cases if it was 10-25%- what all you are foreseeing to be enforced - would come true even in democracies. You wont be left with any option.

Please write about the disease process, educate in each group why it is different, why we should take these steps to protect elders in community.

To all my vaccine hesitancy families - I open my sentence saying I dont know everything. But go through tne natural disease of each vaccine preventable disease and vaccine related side effect, their social situations and international travel. Some of them change their mind.

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good article. not enough people writing about the political reality taking place.

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I have felt this way many times through covid. Incredibly disheartening to see people I considered my peers championing tolitarian policies and reporting rule breakers to the university authorities. My family is polish, suffered great personal cost from both from fascism and communism; the flaws in human nature that enabled those are alive and well in America. Makes me really sad.

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Australia is already lost

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Canada isn’t far behind.

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We're here in Canada. . Other than my Eastern European immigrant friends, no one is aware one modicum of what's happening. Canadians are "polite" and this is our downfall.

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No we're not.

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This is known as a slippery slope fallacy

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But some slopes are slippery. Sometimes things work out that way. Which is enough for his argument.

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Only if you demonstrate a flaw in the logic. You have failed in that regard and as such, your argument is the flawed one.

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