It is disappointing that the CDC is dishonest

A new study exonerating mRNA vaccines in young men is inconclusive; the CDC is shredding its own credibility

The CDC finds that covid-19 vaccines are NOT linked to fatal heart problems in young men. The NBC headline is provocative, but does the study prove what is claimed?

The study appears in MMWR and analyzes the Oregon experience

It looked at “a total of 1,292 deaths among persons aged 16–30 years”. which occurred “In Oregon, during June 2021–December 2022, “

Here is what the paper says

“Among the 24 male decedents with an mRNA COVID-19 vaccination record in IIS, two (8%) died within 100 days of having received the vaccine...”

As a professor of epidemiology, I have no idea why the authors or CDC thinks this proves anything. The sample size is woefully inadequate to see a safety signal for cardiac death. Worse, relying on death certificates biases the whole enterprise as doctors who code death certificates may not even be aware of the potential risk and may themselves wrongly exonerate the vaccine.

At one point in the paper, the authors actually admit the truth, the “small population size made it less likely that Oregon would see a rare event such as sudden cardiac death among adolescents and young adults.”

Of course! The study has no power to find a signal for cardiac deaths. And we know for certain that men between 16 and 24 have a 1 in 3000 risk of myocarditis (from many studies) from dose 1 and roughly a 1 in 10,000 risk of myocarditis from dose 3 (KP experience). We know that sudden cardiac death or death from myocarditis will be much less frequent than this. We also know that the reduction in hospitalization from COVID19 vaccination was largest for dose 1 and unknown for dose 3, or in kids who had COVID.

With these facts, almost surely, the vaccine does increase death from cardiac reasons (as some people get myocarditis and some of these people will die), though this signal will be small, and too small to see in a single, low population state (Oregon). We also know the risk benefit balance of the vaccine may shift with repeat doses and natural immunity. This is epidemiology 101. It is a shame that the CDC is not willing to actually conduct the correct studies to quantify the risk, and continues to publish misinformation.