Only one place I disagree with you: this is not going to be a bad week for COVID fear-mongerers, since their fear was always resistant to common sense and is more a matter of religion than of science by now.
First, it was "Millions of kids will die!"
When it became clear COVID was actually pretty mild in kids, and even in most healthy adults, it shifted to "Save Grandma!"
Once vaccines came out, meaning that Grandma probably wasn't going to die either, unless she was otherwise unwell, it became "Well, yeah, you may not DIE, or even get very sick, but do you want crippling Long COVID? And by the time a huge percentage of the population had already had COVID, it became "Maybe you got lucky this time, but every time you get it, you're risking long Covid AGAIN."
As long as we have absurdly irresponsible studies claiming that a logically impossible percentage of the population are suffering from "Long COVID," however generously defined, the usual suspects will have something to cling to. And even if it were conclusively shown that LC weren't a major risk factor, we'd still have "Well, COVID might have massive long-term health impacts that won't become apparent for decades." At which point we're fully into the realm of religion, since that is, in the short-to-medium term, a non-falsifiable hypothesis.
This paper has the best statistical analysis that I've seen in a long time. Longitudinal patient level data were needed for this analysis. The results strongly suggest that much of "long covid" is psychosomatic and the rest is normal recovery from a viral infection. Any further studies of long covid need to use longitudinal patient level data for me to take them seriously. Data that are cross-sectonal and/or macro level will not work for long covid analyses.
A penetrating APC (analysis + commentary) from Vinay. I think that I may be feeling penetrated by this crisp performance. Not sure. One thing is not in doubt: The epidemiology enterprise simply must mount deliberate, careful, and structured counterattacks to irresponsible, fear-mongering stuff that the lay press spews far too often whenever the topic is long COVID. Cross-sectional studies can too often resemble used cars -- all kinds of concealed problems.
The fear mongers relied on short duration retrospective studies to invent LONG COVID...and it was debunked by a LONGitudinal study. How ironic. Or how obvious.
I (and many like me) do not have the time/inclination to watch yet another video even if it is wonderful. The information density is far too low.
Can someone post the link to the reference if you have found it so I can retrieve it. That would be most appreciated. I have no idea why Vinay did not put it into the non-writeup.
Behold Vinay. My gift to you, from Denmark. Not sure how long this gift link will be available commenting on the study, which itself is linked at the end.
"Study of late complications: More people with late complications have not had corona"
"A study of the members of a Facebook group for people with late complications from corona has reached a surprising result: About a third of the participants in the study did not have antibodies from an infection with corona. So they have not been infected with corona."
In the study, 341 members of the Facebook group "Covid sufferers with late complications" agreed to have a blood test and answer a questionnaire.
Nine out of ten of the participants were women.
"They feel bad, they are sick, they have many different symptoms that they believe are caused by COVID-19," senior author Kasper Iversen, a professor and chief physician at Herlev and Gentofte Hospital, told Politiken.
"Their problems are just not related to a COVID infection. There are other causes of their symptoms than corona.
The study itself:
Self-Reported Long COVID and Its Association with the Presence of SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies in a Danish Cohort up to 12 Months after Infection
Only one place I disagree with you: this is not going to be a bad week for COVID fear-mongerers, since their fear was always resistant to common sense and is more a matter of religion than of science by now.
First, it was "Millions of kids will die!"
When it became clear COVID was actually pretty mild in kids, and even in most healthy adults, it shifted to "Save Grandma!"
Once vaccines came out, meaning that Grandma probably wasn't going to die either, unless she was otherwise unwell, it became "Well, yeah, you may not DIE, or even get very sick, but do you want crippling Long COVID? And by the time a huge percentage of the population had already had COVID, it became "Maybe you got lucky this time, but every time you get it, you're risking long Covid AGAIN."
As long as we have absurdly irresponsible studies claiming that a logically impossible percentage of the population are suffering from "Long COVID," however generously defined, the usual suspects will have something to cling to. And even if it were conclusively shown that LC weren't a major risk factor, we'd still have "Well, COVID might have massive long-term health impacts that won't become apparent for decades." At which point we're fully into the realm of religion, since that is, in the short-to-medium term, a non-falsifiable hypothesis.
I work in pediatrics and have NEVER had a patient with "Long covid." I doubt long covid is a thing, at least in the pediatric population.
Weird. Just like a majority post-viral conditions that resolve within 3-6 months. So strange.
This paper has the best statistical analysis that I've seen in a long time. Longitudinal patient level data were needed for this analysis. The results strongly suggest that much of "long covid" is psychosomatic and the rest is normal recovery from a viral infection. Any further studies of long covid need to use longitudinal patient level data for me to take them seriously. Data that are cross-sectonal and/or macro level will not work for long covid analyses.
A penetrating APC (analysis + commentary) from Vinay. I think that I may be feeling penetrated by this crisp performance. Not sure. One thing is not in doubt: The epidemiology enterprise simply must mount deliberate, careful, and structured counterattacks to irresponsible, fear-mongering stuff that the lay press spews far too often whenever the topic is long COVID. Cross-sectional studies can too often resemble used cars -- all kinds of concealed problems.
So glad to know that there are REAL scientists out there finding REAL answers.
The fear mongers relied on short duration retrospective studies to invent LONG COVID...and it was debunked by a LONGitudinal study. How ironic. Or how obvious.
I (and many like me) do not have the time/inclination to watch yet another video even if it is wonderful. The information density is far too low.
Can someone post the link to the reference if you have found it so I can retrieve it. That would be most appreciated. I have no idea why Vinay did not put it into the non-writeup.
Thanks
[Cross posted from sensible medicine https://sensiblemed.substack.com/p/new-paper-compares-long-covid-to/comment/10980712]
Behold Vinay. My gift to you, from Denmark. Not sure how long this gift link will be available commenting on the study, which itself is linked at the end.
"Study of late complications: More people with late complications have not had corona"
https://jyllands-posten.dk/article14608938.ece?shareToken=753gikvo1l5jp7m0m4jnkqgf
Excerpts, translated with MS Edge:
"A study of the members of a Facebook group for people with late complications from corona has reached a surprising result: About a third of the participants in the study did not have antibodies from an infection with corona. So they have not been infected with corona."
In the study, 341 members of the Facebook group "Covid sufferers with late complications" agreed to have a blood test and answer a questionnaire.
Nine out of ten of the participants were women.
"They feel bad, they are sick, they have many different symptoms that they believe are caused by COVID-19," senior author Kasper Iversen, a professor and chief physician at Herlev and Gentofte Hospital, told Politiken.
"Their problems are just not related to a COVID infection. There are other causes of their symptoms than corona.
The study itself:
Self-Reported Long COVID and Its Association with the Presence of SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies in a Danish Cohort up to 12 Months after Infection
https://journals.asm.org/doi/10.1128/spectrum.02537-22
Good to hear a reasonable report.
Good to hear a reasonable paper.
love this news! Thank you for walking us through!
Your the best!