Vinay, This may be your most important piece. It needs extension to the political machinery suborned by power-hungry/scared officials to make this all worse, but your points are potent and pointed. Those of us that have been railing against "public health" (really public fraud) since spring of 2020 are delighted when thoughtful people with a platform can see through the fog and cut to the meat. Bravo!
Vinay, Bravo. After the CDC guidelines came out yesterday, i had a pit in my stomach because nothing is being done to make sure this doesn't happen again. I became hopeful this am reading your words. Those of us on the frontlines of medicine (not in academia) agree it is time to stop listening to partisan organizations like the AAP. Your voice is so important. Thank you!!!
Public health officials keep talking about the need to "get shots in arms", yet studies out of the U.K. suggest that close to 100% of the population has already had exposure to Covid. Studies also found that somewhere around 70% of children under 11 had antibodies, which is significant because at that time vaccines had not been authorized for the under-11 age group.
These people in charge keep acting like vaccines are the only thing that work, not the lowest-risk group (young people) being exposed and developing natural immunity.
One of the biggest signs that public health officials are not following the science is that natural immunity isn't recognized in any meaningful way (e.g. exemptions from vaccination requirements). A vaccine whose effectiveness wanes significantly within months is considered acceptable, even a year after the initial doses. (This is the situation I'm in; I got my first two shots in March and April 2021.
According to the data I've seen I hardly have any immunity to omicron, which I caught after Xmas.) Given how bad my reaction was to both shots (8 days sick total), I passed on the booster. Now that I had omicron recently, I'm going to avoid getting a booster for as long as possible.
Boosters were required in my grad school program, but I got an exemption because my program is completely online. Fortunately my workplace hasn't mandated boosters, but if it does I'm prepared to get an antibody test and present studies on the efficacy of vaccines/boosters v. natural immunity.
FWIW I'm in my 30s, fit, no underlying conditions, etc.
1) so accommodating that you were able to get an exemption- not because you had covid plus 2 doses, but because you were online
2) check out the Qatar study, specifically noting the time interval for the efficacy stats. I’m not sure why more aren’t pointing out this study compared to the UK and CdC data on booster efficacy at 12 -16 weeks post boost. I believe Qatar study is looking at prior infection alone (not hybrid immunity which has been shown to be even more powerful) but at an avg of 314 or so days (off the top of my head - and IQR of 270 ish to 420 ish days- so basically a year post infection for vast majority of participants in study), efficacy was 88% vs severe disease (the 88% blends in immunocompromised & those with multiple risk factors so I would bet close to or 100% for a 30 yr old with no risk factors). Efficacy against symptomatic does wane- 56% against omicron specifically (much higher against other variants) BUT 56% a year past infection is substantially higher than 16 weeks post boost. (The Uk data showed 35% with Pfizer and 45% with moderna at 10 weeks post boost with peak protection of 75% in the first month or so after boost). By the way, drives me crazy when people say “but prior infection is variable”. So is vax!! I strongly support vax in adults with no prior infection and also support parents having a choice to vax their kids (based on kids risk, family’s risk, ability to choose 0, 1 or 2 doses (esp if had covid), ability to space doses (acip finally says “up to” 8 weeks is “allowed” but the Uk does not even allow a second dose before 12 weeks for healthy kids (8 weeks for at risk kids). ).
Funny anecdote- my 14 y o school is now mask optional always (has been outside all year- NO issues). However they did have a huge flu outbreak with 40 juniors out with the flu When masks were still mandated. In the meantime, my 11 yr old ‘s school is lifting OUTDOOR masks only at his k-12 where most are vaxxed (and age 12+ has to be boosted to be considered vaxxed and any privileges which go with being vaxxed). And 100 of 250-300 students have had covid since Aug 2020 - so a very immune population!
As I have said many times, "if you wouldn't hire your university president to be your personal physician, then why is he ordering medical treatments for you?". Yeah, good leaders, now, have to resist the temptation to say "whew, glad that craziness is over now". No, we have to make sure it never happens again, which means breaking the back of "emergency powers" laws and public health laws.
Mandating boosters was the 100% logical conclusion from mandating the first shots, and forever boosters is 100% the next logical step, the same way SOME hospitals stupidly require vaccination from their staff. The ONLY rational behind mandating a vaccination is if it is a sterilizing vaccine. And even that requires a conversation of ethics and democratic principles.
In Canada, "mandating" (child vaccinations in Canada are soft "mandates" not hard ones) childhood vaccinations beyond polio did not SIGNIFICANTLY change lethality or sequella. What changed long-term health outcomes around those illnesses was general societal hygiene and medical capacity. I'm only 55 and my generation, we had all those illnesses, and are NOT worse off for it.
Medical hysteria must end. Choice must remain the primary tool in democracy.
Thank you for highlighting this troubling trend. The Seattle region is being held under longer restrictions due to the opinions of Seattle/King County health director, Dr Duchin. As he is a non-elected official, there is nothing voters can do about it.
Seattle metro is one of the most vaccinated areas in the country—upwards of 90% of all eligible have received a first dose. In our bizarro world, the Washington state superintendent was the first to announce the metrics were good enough to remove masks in schools. An hour later, Gov Inslee said they would be acceptable by March 21st. That evening, King County would not commit to an end date for masking—the numbers aren’t there (with no metrics on what is acceptable). Yet, the same Dr Duchin says we can lift the vaccine verification for restaurants this Tuesday.
So as of Tuesday, I no longer need proof of vaccination to enter a restaurant, but I better wear my mask for that dangerous 15-foot walk to my table.
After the CDC’s new chart shows that Seattle/King County is green—very low transmission, that’s fantastic news—suddenly WA is no longer listening to the CDC. We’re still sticking with masks till March 21. We hear that the CDC does not have accurate, up-to-date data that the state DOH has, but this data is not being shared with the public.
I don't envy the position Dr Duchin is in, but at the same time, he needs to evaluate that it's been 2 years, and most of us have traveled outside the region and survived in areas with less mandates. Therefore it's making less and less sense to have a stricter mandates locally. Just because we have the lion's share of the state's hospital beds, you don't penalize local, highly vaccinated and "compliant" residents. It's like a teacher having indoor recess all year long because at some point, some kid will step out of line.
We need to rebuild trust in public health before the next wave or pandemic happens. Trust goes both ways--let the community breathe (pun intended) and get used to a mask-free option, so that we are more understanding when the time comes to increase precautions.
Thanks so much for this piece and all of your work. I am interested in working to support the ideas and recommendations in this article. If anyone has suggestions on how I can get involved, please let me know.
Mark great to 'see you' after all these years. I think some of Vinay's recommendations are sound, but I'm surprised you would support others, given your career running businesses. It is really helpful to create more regulations for businesses that limit what public health measure they can prescribe for their employees?
It’s been a great demonstration how once people with a propensity to enjoy power get a taste, it’s basically impossible to get them to give it up. We’ve gone so far down the rabbit hole of irrational use of power I’m not sure if we’ll ever get back. It started with hysteria, but now that has gone, it’s obvious the power grab remains. Another good demonstration that hysteria is never a good way to deal with anything.I couldn’t agree with you more but it’s going to be tough going. I’m with you!
Vinay, This may be your most important piece. It needs extension to the political machinery suborned by power-hungry/scared officials to make this all worse, but your points are potent and pointed. Those of us that have been railing against "public health" (really public fraud) since spring of 2020 are delighted when thoughtful people with a platform can see through the fog and cut to the meat. Bravo!
I agree. This might be his most important piece and it should be shared with those (crazies) in power worldwide!
and the piece on how democracy ends.
“ Whoever made the policy is an idiot.”
The end.
100%
Vinay, Bravo. After the CDC guidelines came out yesterday, i had a pit in my stomach because nothing is being done to make sure this doesn't happen again. I became hopeful this am reading your words. Those of us on the frontlines of medicine (not in academia) agree it is time to stop listening to partisan organizations like the AAP. Your voice is so important. Thank you!!!
Public health officials keep talking about the need to "get shots in arms", yet studies out of the U.K. suggest that close to 100% of the population has already had exposure to Covid. Studies also found that somewhere around 70% of children under 11 had antibodies, which is significant because at that time vaccines had not been authorized for the under-11 age group.
These people in charge keep acting like vaccines are the only thing that work, not the lowest-risk group (young people) being exposed and developing natural immunity.
And all those people with shots in their arms… Got Covid.
One of the biggest signs that public health officials are not following the science is that natural immunity isn't recognized in any meaningful way (e.g. exemptions from vaccination requirements). A vaccine whose effectiveness wanes significantly within months is considered acceptable, even a year after the initial doses. (This is the situation I'm in; I got my first two shots in March and April 2021.
According to the data I've seen I hardly have any immunity to omicron, which I caught after Xmas.) Given how bad my reaction was to both shots (8 days sick total), I passed on the booster. Now that I had omicron recently, I'm going to avoid getting a booster for as long as possible.
Boosters were required in my grad school program, but I got an exemption because my program is completely online. Fortunately my workplace hasn't mandated boosters, but if it does I'm prepared to get an antibody test and present studies on the efficacy of vaccines/boosters v. natural immunity.
FWIW I'm in my 30s, fit, no underlying conditions, etc.
1) so accommodating that you were able to get an exemption- not because you had covid plus 2 doses, but because you were online
2) check out the Qatar study, specifically noting the time interval for the efficacy stats. I’m not sure why more aren’t pointing out this study compared to the UK and CdC data on booster efficacy at 12 -16 weeks post boost. I believe Qatar study is looking at prior infection alone (not hybrid immunity which has been shown to be even more powerful) but at an avg of 314 or so days (off the top of my head - and IQR of 270 ish to 420 ish days- so basically a year post infection for vast majority of participants in study), efficacy was 88% vs severe disease (the 88% blends in immunocompromised & those with multiple risk factors so I would bet close to or 100% for a 30 yr old with no risk factors). Efficacy against symptomatic does wane- 56% against omicron specifically (much higher against other variants) BUT 56% a year past infection is substantially higher than 16 weeks post boost. (The Uk data showed 35% with Pfizer and 45% with moderna at 10 weeks post boost with peak protection of 75% in the first month or so after boost). By the way, drives me crazy when people say “but prior infection is variable”. So is vax!! I strongly support vax in adults with no prior infection and also support parents having a choice to vax their kids (based on kids risk, family’s risk, ability to choose 0, 1 or 2 doses (esp if had covid), ability to space doses (acip finally says “up to” 8 weeks is “allowed” but the Uk does not even allow a second dose before 12 weeks for healthy kids (8 weeks for at risk kids). ).
Funny anecdote- my 14 y o school is now mask optional always (has been outside all year- NO issues). However they did have a huge flu outbreak with 40 juniors out with the flu When masks were still mandated. In the meantime, my 11 yr old ‘s school is lifting OUTDOOR masks only at his k-12 where most are vaxxed (and age 12+ has to be boosted to be considered vaxxed and any privileges which go with being vaxxed). And 100 of 250-300 students have had covid since Aug 2020 - so a very immune population!
The only way I'm trusting the CDC again in my lifetime is if someone like Dr. Prasad is in charge.
As I have said many times, "if you wouldn't hire your university president to be your personal physician, then why is he ordering medical treatments for you?". Yeah, good leaders, now, have to resist the temptation to say "whew, glad that craziness is over now". No, we have to make sure it never happens again, which means breaking the back of "emergency powers" laws and public health laws.
Mandating boosters was the 100% logical conclusion from mandating the first shots, and forever boosters is 100% the next logical step, the same way SOME hospitals stupidly require vaccination from their staff. The ONLY rational behind mandating a vaccination is if it is a sterilizing vaccine. And even that requires a conversation of ethics and democratic principles.
In Canada, "mandating" (child vaccinations in Canada are soft "mandates" not hard ones) childhood vaccinations beyond polio did not SIGNIFICANTLY change lethality or sequella. What changed long-term health outcomes around those illnesses was general societal hygiene and medical capacity. I'm only 55 and my generation, we had all those illnesses, and are NOT worse off for it.
Medical hysteria must end. Choice must remain the primary tool in democracy.
Yes, yes. We The People analysis & re-allocation of authority. It’s clear where the cart is before the horse. Time to take the reins back.
Thank you for highlighting this troubling trend. The Seattle region is being held under longer restrictions due to the opinions of Seattle/King County health director, Dr Duchin. As he is a non-elected official, there is nothing voters can do about it.
Seattle metro is one of the most vaccinated areas in the country—upwards of 90% of all eligible have received a first dose. In our bizarro world, the Washington state superintendent was the first to announce the metrics were good enough to remove masks in schools. An hour later, Gov Inslee said they would be acceptable by March 21st. That evening, King County would not commit to an end date for masking—the numbers aren’t there (with no metrics on what is acceptable). Yet, the same Dr Duchin says we can lift the vaccine verification for restaurants this Tuesday.
So as of Tuesday, I no longer need proof of vaccination to enter a restaurant, but I better wear my mask for that dangerous 15-foot walk to my table.
After the CDC’s new chart shows that Seattle/King County is green—very low transmission, that’s fantastic news—suddenly WA is no longer listening to the CDC. We’re still sticking with masks till March 21. We hear that the CDC does not have accurate, up-to-date data that the state DOH has, but this data is not being shared with the public.
I don't envy the position Dr Duchin is in, but at the same time, he needs to evaluate that it's been 2 years, and most of us have traveled outside the region and survived in areas with less mandates. Therefore it's making less and less sense to have a stricter mandates locally. Just because we have the lion's share of the state's hospital beds, you don't penalize local, highly vaccinated and "compliant" residents. It's like a teacher having indoor recess all year long because at some point, some kid will step out of line.
We need to rebuild trust in public health before the next wave or pandemic happens. Trust goes both ways--let the community breathe (pun intended) and get used to a mask-free option, so that we are more understanding when the time comes to increase precautions.
I just love the Bill of Rights for the children!
Patients, not just children. But I agree!
Thanks so much for this piece and all of your work. I am interested in working to support the ideas and recommendations in this article. If anyone has suggestions on how I can get involved, please let me know.
Mark great to 'see you' after all these years. I think some of Vinay's recommendations are sound, but I'm surprised you would support others, given your career running businesses. It is really helpful to create more regulations for businesses that limit what public health measure they can prescribe for their employees?
Bravo! I will work for this cause!
It’s been a great demonstration how once people with a propensity to enjoy power get a taste, it’s basically impossible to get them to give it up. We’ve gone so far down the rabbit hole of irrational use of power I’m not sure if we’ll ever get back. It started with hysteria, but now that has gone, it’s obvious the power grab remains. Another good demonstration that hysteria is never a good way to deal with anything.I couldn’t agree with you more but it’s going to be tough going. I’m with you!
I couldn’t like this piece more.
Thank you for your sanity and scientific thinking.