Rebuttal to comments from EconTalk

Recently, I spoke to Russ Roberts for EconTalk for 90 minutes. You can watch the video here. In response, some readers had criticism, which I will respond to here.

In response to Erik, “there is no RCT evidence for these up-front claims that Vinay is making about severe disease”

Incorrect. The Moderna randomized study shows an imbalance in severe disease, and this is highly statistically and clinically persuasive.

In response to Ed’s “myocarditis from vaccination is far more likely to be mild/easily treatable, while that induced by covid is much more likely to be severe”

This is incorrect. First, myocarditis after vaccination occurs in young healthy men who have nearly no COVID19 risk. While much is self resolving, MRI shows persistent gad abnormalities suggesting scarring, which may precipitate death from arrhythmia in future. Finally, a tiny percentage does lead to frank failure and death. The risk of harm is far greater than potential for benefit, particularly with doses after dose 2.

Myocarditis after vaccination is an idiopathic side effect that occurs in isolation from other malady. Myocarditis after COVID itself is most likely demand ischemia in people who are critically ill. In other words, one is an immunologically mediated phenomenon and the other is part of a constellation of bad outcomes.

Myocarditis after COVID19 (aka troponin rise) mostly affects old, vulnerable people who get really sick. Finally, the studies that document its frequency use the wrong denominator of EHR coded infections and not all people who got sick— who mostly didn’t test.

The final point is it is not risk of one vs the other. Vaccination does not stop COVID19, so it is the risk of COVID induced harms + or - vaccine harms.

Doses beyond Dose 2 of COVID vaccine for young men were net harmful

In response to Jonathan, ”Prasad makes the mistake of misstating the case for vaccine mandates as whether vaccination prevents getting and transmitting Covid entirely.

Even a 50% effectiveness against getting and transmitting Covid can significantly reduce the impact of the disease, particularly the stress on hospitals.”

Here is why Jonathan is wrong. First, consider a world with and without vaccine mandates. A world without vaccine mandates still has a lot of vaccination, as some people want it. A world with mandates, might have slightly more, as some people get it only because of the mandate. Others may prefer to be fired (which has negative consequences). How many people got vaccinated in the US just because of the Biden mandates?

The answer is shockingly low. Btw 1 to 4% by my estimates. You can perform discontinuity to prove this to yourself.

Now does an increase in vaccination by 1 to 4% change transmission dynamics, when the vaccine has a 50% reduction in transmission that fades to 0% or perhaps even negative vaccine effectiveness at 4 months? The answer is absolutely not. As such it did nothing to shield hospitals from the overflow that they never had anyway in third quarter 2021.

Vaccine mandates slow transmission the same way watering your lawn stops forest fires.