The CDC is already mismanaging H5N1

The implications for the virus and the potential government response are vast and concerning

Concern about Avian flu (H5N1) is heating up. Yesterday, the New England Journal featured the case of a dairy farm worker who contracted the disease.

Interestingly, the worker had predominantly eye symptoms and no respiratory tract symptoms. The worker only came into contact with HEALTHY cattle and not sick animals. The worker was shown to have H5N1. Let’s be clear: the case suggests only that he caught it from one the animals, and likely in his eye. If only he had been wearing a cloth mask!

Next, Stat news interviews the CDC’s “top” flu scientist, whose inadequate answers should make you concerned.

In response to the first question, she makes it clear that she is going to blame the states for H5N1 and is taking no responsibility — the hallmark of the CDC is issuing guidance that obliges others to act a certain way, not running randomized studies to test that guidance, and then ultimately blaming others for following your guidance (this was the COVID19 playbook).

She says she can’t monitor anything until she gets an invitation.

Let’s remember that during the COVID19 pandemic the CDC did not perform regular seroprevalence work and relied on others to do that basic tracking. If the CDC can’t do anything, why do we spend tens of billions on the agency?

In response to the Texas case, look at this answer

The CDC did not even check if his relatives contracted H5N1. How is this defensible?

This is a particularly amazing reply.

Let’s not forget during the COVID-19 pandemic the CDC could not even count the number of dead kids accurately, masked 2 year olds, promoted school closure, boosted young men who had already had COVID and were at risk of myocarditis, recommended cloth masks, and pretty much got every major policy decision wrong.

What is the only conclusion a sensible person can reach: The CDC’s ability to manage pandemics is poor.

Given that, let’s imagine the worst case scenario that we actually get human to human transmission of H5N1. Undoubtedly, given this is an election year, it will be a cataclysmic occurrence. Particularly the policy response. So let’s remember the facts.

1. There is no evidence that community masking slows influenza like viruses. That is the conclusion of the Cochrane review of randomized trials and the CDC has not generated evidence on this topic. There are literally no studies of community N95 recommendations. Mandates have no data to support them.

2. There is no evidence that school closure slowed the spread of COVID19—- the best evidence suggests it did not. Even if pandemic flu is more lethal in kids, closing schools should only be considered if it can be tested (in step wedge or other design). Since, the CDC has not shown they can run studies, schools should not be closed.

3. Vaccines for H5N1 may be generated quickly, but I won’t be taking one, unless a randomized trial shows a reduction in severe disease and includes people like me (young and healthy and thin).

4. The use of lockdown and other government restrictions has no evidence to support it, and I will personally relocate or resist if faced with these restrictions

5. The media-industrial complex and the incumbent administration have repeatedly shown a zeal for unproven, restrictive policies, and a desire to silence critics on social media. At a time of scientific uncertainty, they are dangerous. I will be skeptical of any data they provide, and recommendations they make. In an election year, particularly.

H5N1 is gaining news coverage. We should follow it closely and make sure we do not relive the errors of 2019-2023.