Why Did Trump Win?

The answer might be "all of the above"

A couple weeks before the election, I was at a dinner and a colleague asked me, what do you predict will happen in the election— state by state? I was wrong only about Minnesota. I thought it would go for Trump, despite it being Walz’ home state. My advantage is that I went to high school in LaPorte, In, and live in SF, Ca—I have a sense of how people in both places think.

The betting markets were better than me, some markets were 100% correct, and Nate Silver’s modal prediction was accurate, although his distribution was wide. Finally, as I stated on a recent VPZD episode, the polls were off. Polling is not a science. We should stop paying for their services.

Pundits— who were completely wrong the entire time— have happily turned their attentions to why Trump won. I find their insights lacking. Here, I will offer a broader theory of why Trump won. But first a little disclaimer. Imagine you have a perfect study, and you ask all people, as they leave the voting booth— why did you vote for Trump or Harris? You record their answers. You might think this is the best answer. However, it isn’t. That’s why they say they voted for Trump, and might not be the real reason they voted. The perfect experiment is impossible— alter details about Trump’s policy and personality— and have them vote again.

My theory is that Trump won for ‘all of the above’ reasons. Different people have different reasons to vote for Trump. Likely Trump created a patchwork constituency. Let me explore those reasons.

Immigration. Obviously, Biden-Harris allowed record levels of undocumented immigrants into America by rescinding Trump era policies. By the time they took action, it was too late. This type of immigration, and the stories of crime/ gangs, will motivate some voter.

Inflation. Obviously Biden-Harris provided too much capital injection during COVID. Advisors like Larry Summers were correct this would cause inflation. Many times, Harris surrogates provided truthful but misleading information, e.g. inflation is down this quarter. Sure, but it is cumulative. We are inflating less this quarter, but the damage is done and it is still getting worse. The messaging was at odd with how people felt. (same for purchasing power).

Guns. I doubt guns were a major issue. Dems have leaned into gun culture. With Harris famously claiming she would shoot someone who enters her house, and Walz hunting. Guns is an issue where the conversation has shifted so dramatically the proponents have won completely.

Abortion. What Dobbs did, is done. Dobbs transfered the decision of abortion to the states. Even liberal legal scholars— e..g Akhil Amar— believe that Roe was wrongly decided and Dobbs is a more accurate interpretation of the constitution. Different states have taken different measures. Practically speaking, before Dobbs, an abortion was difficult to obtain in Alabama, and now it is ~ impossible. The total number of abortions in America is up post Dobbs.

Finally, Trump was clear he would take no further action on abortion, and the democrats messaging that he would, was not persuasive.

Trans-gender issues.

Some Americans may prefer Trump’s stance on trans-gender issues. These people likely feel uneasy about biologic men competing against biologic females in sports, and laws, such as those in California, which cut the parent out of conversations about their child’s gender identity. Notably, European nations have moved against puberty blocker therapy, while Harris administration supported it. I discussed this in a recent Sensible medicine debate.

Follow the science

Some former democrats have been lost forever because of COVID-19 policy. Biden-Harris pushed cloth masking on 2 year olds, forced millions to get vaccines and boosters (who didn’t need it), ignored myocarditis and VITT, sided with teachers unions to keep schools closed, and their administration lied repeatedly about it, claiming they “follow the science.“ Also discussed elsewhere

Censorship

Although it is de riguer to say Trump is a facist, it was Biden-Harris that censored free speech of Americans in the pandemic.

Israel

Some may view Trump as more friendly to Israeli interests and vote for this reason.

Trump’s personality & TDS

Some voters may vote because they enjoy Trump’s personality. They may find him funny or entertaining. Others may vote for him merely because he angers people that they dislike. Some believe that elite democrats think that average people are beneath them, elite coastal democrats think us midwesterners are scum. Statements like this, by a physician, just reinforce that.

I don’t think we can call 72 million Americans bad people. TDS— the Trump derangement syndrome— is the idea that Trump gets under the skin of some people, and makes them act in defiance of common sense. Here is an example of TDS

The American Academy of Pediatrics hated Trump more than they loved children and did massive damage. That is a clear cut case of TDS.

Trump’s campaign vs Harris campaign

Trump was almost assassinated. Trump & Vance did a number of hostile interviews. Trump and Vance did 6 hours on Rogan. Meanwhile Harris declined an invitation to appear on Rogan, rarely spoke off the cuff, avoided the media. Harris appeared fragile and weak, and Trump, as always, energetic and combative.

Dems messaging that Trump will steal democracy was unbelievable

I think most voters felt that it would be unlikely that a then 82 year old Donald Trump would subvert the future 2028 election, and find a way to remain in power in 2029, into his mid 80s.

Dems messaging that Trump is demented fell flat.

I think people can see obviously that Joe Biden has declined, but Trump is the same as he always has been. Strangely, although many comment how the presidency ages you (e.g. Obama), Trump appears perhaps younger than he did in 2016.

A patchwork group

Likely, some people voted for Trump for different reasons. A few people because of COVID. Many because of Israel or other foreign policy. A lot because of immigration. Many because of personality and because he angers the elite coastal democrats. A few votes here and there and pretty soon you are talking about real money.

That’s my theory, and I can already predict someone is going to cite a survey that says something different, but I can tell you already that survey is trash, and so is the pollster who ran it. There will never be higher quality evidence than the above (which is not high quality) on this question.