Will RFK Jr make it all the way to HHS secretary?

And will he be able to enact his agenda?

Just today, Trump announced that RFK Jr. will be his nominee for HHS secretary. But will he make it to the office? And will he be able to enact his agenda?

There are several practical parts to this question. First, will enough Republicans vote for him? He can lose no more than 3 senators. Second, will corporate interests push against him? How far will they go?

Of course, Trump might use a recess appointment to get him in, but he will more likely need a Senate confirmation. There are reasons to think he may lose this. He has a long history of statements that can be used against him. He has a several hundred billion dollar industry that will do everything possible to stop him. Many of these companies have lobbied throughout Congress. They will use those connections. Unlike, other controversial appointees, RFK Jr. will be the single greatest threat to profits in America.

If Matt Gaetz makes it, but RFK jr doesn’t; we must conclude that money talks, and his reason for dismissal was lobbying, even if another reason is given. Between now and the job there are many things that can derail a candidate. Think about Daschle and HHS.

Having said that, let me argue the other side of the coin, and make the case that he does make it to HHS secretary.

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The case that he makes it…

Although he has many views, and many are controversial and incorrect, he has some views that are popular. He hates pollutants and hates the oversized and corrupt role of Pharma. These are popular ideas.

Unlike others, he is, in many ways, close to a traditional politician. He has political connections and experience navigating these circles.

Although not a doctor, he has a long-standing interest in health care.

He is part of Kennedy family and Trump supposedly likes him a lot.

Furthermore, he is already generating a strange cross the aisle appeal.

Jared Polis, the successful Democratic governor of Colorado endorses him. Polis says something similar to me about what precisely RFK jr’s stance on vaccines and mandates will be.

Finally, there is less of a shock factor— this has been coming for some time. RFK Jr endorsed Trump and it has been said he would play a role in the administration, this is in contrast with Gaetz, whom many were surprised about.

Now for the second question

Will RFK Jr. enacts his changes:

My prediction is no. He will be opposed at every turn. He may get one or two things done, and then the wheels of the system will stop him, sue him, halt him, and grind him down. There is too much money in health care, and the status quo is too powerful. The press opposes him entirely. If he is wise, he will take a center position as I propose, and pursue these 9 things for health care. If he pushes too hard, or goes after vaccines too much, he will be stopped. I would recommend he start with conflict of interest, as that ruins the current system and he is strongly anti-conflict.

Finally, I think it must be remembered that the recent origin of anti-vaccine sentiment did not start with RFK Jr. It started with Fauci and Walensky and Biden and others who pushed a COVID19 vaccine mandate with no data it halted transmission. Those actions, set the stage for widespread vaccine hesitancy. The blame is not with RFK but with their overzealous and incorrect actions, and some of us predicted this.