Do other countries do it? A simple litmus test for RFK Jr's ideas

A simple litmus test for RFK Jr's ideas is do other, sensible nations do it that way

A number of US commenters have been hand-wringing about RFK Jr’s nomination. “He supports people being able to purchase raw milk, don’t you know!” “He wants to discourage municipal water plants from adding fluoride!” He is concerned that the “MMR vaccine is linked to autism.”

As the media tries to portray RFK Jr as a conspiracy theorist, I think we need to draw a distinction. Some of his views are correct, others might be wrong, but worthy of debate, and yet others take things too far.

As the Overton window shifts, we need guidance. My proposal is this: When you hear an RFK Jr idea, or the media discusses it, ask; Do other nations/ states or cities do it that way? If that is the case, then RFK is not, prima-facia, crazy. Let me be clear; that doesn’t mean he is right, but that does mean his view are not apocalyptical, and we should talk about it.

Raw milk

RFK Jr wants Americans to be able to buy unpasteurized milk. This will mean that healthy people tolerate some risk of infection for perhaps a better flavor or taste. Emily Oster calculates that this would mean an annual risk of infection of 760/11,000,000 or 7 in 100,000. That might be a risk some people accept. Now, for my litmus test: do other nations do it?

Again, just because other nations do it, doesn’t mean it is right, and we can have that debate, but it does mean that this is not a conspiracy theorist view. I personally think that healthy adults should be able to accept the risk of choosing to drink raw milk, but that is just me. Healthy adults are allowed to bungie jump, so it is not the purvey of the state to eliminate all risk for pleasure. I also personally don’t drink much milk, and doubt I will ever drink raw milk.

Fluoride in water

I am working on a longer essay describing the evidence for fluoride on caries and the papers that claim a decline in cognitive function, but here is the litmus test. Germany, Norway and Sweden don’t put fluoride in water.

Again, we can debate the policy, but it is not conspiracy theory.

On a side note; lets be honest what will happen if RFK Jr issues the advisory. All blue cities will keep fluoride in-- shit, they might even add more ;)—and all red cities will remove it. That’s the reality of what will happen in this polarized country.

COVID19 policy

RFK Jr opposed masking kids. Sweden never masked kids <12; Many European countries did not mask kids

RFK Jr. opposed COVID vaccines for kids. Many European nations did not give COVID19 vaccines for kids.

On these issues, RFK Jr is completely correct.

RFK Jr. thinks COVID was a great opportunity for corporations — Pfizer and Moderna— to make hundreds of billions dubiously. I think the vaccines did save lives— when given to old, non immune people in early 2021— but I also think RFK Jr is mostly correct. The companies pushed it in kids and pushed repeated dosing to steal more money without proof that this was needed.

MMR vaccine

The MMR vaccine is not linked to autism based on my reading of the literature, with studies excluding an OR of 1.02 or higher, which is quite stringent. All European countries recommend MMR vaccines. Japan says a single dose of MMR. No country that I am aware of us says don’t give it because of autism. Here I think if RFK Jr wants to discourage MMR— that is a bridge too far because no one does that.

Hep B vaccine

Switzerland and Austria do not recommend hep B vaccination for low risk babies AT BIRTH. In the USA all mothers are screened for Hep B, and there could be some compromises here, as RFK Jr. does not like this vaccine at Birth.

In fact there are lots of differences in global vaccination schedules. You can find that here is a way to compare. schedules.

The point here is that an honest scientists would admit that we have no idea which country has the correct schedule, and some childhood vaccines should re-enter the overton window for debate.

Moreover, doctors who say “vaccines save lives” ‘all vaccines are safe and effective” are usually idiots. They haven’t studied the topic or even thought about it for 1 second. Some vaccines are vital. Some are debatable, and some were net harmful (mrna for young men during covid). Vaccines are like drugs. We need better evidence.

Take the maternal RSV vaccine— that one is debatable see:

Open concerns with recent RCTs for Maternal RSV vaccination

How to answer the vaccination question definitively?

A simple way to answer definitively which childhood immunization schedule is best is a cluster RCT in the USA. Randomize different provinces or states or counties to different schedules. This would allow to assess for even additive or combined side effects, a claim that vaccine hesitant folks have made for years. RFK Jr. should do this.

Banning pesticides

Some pesticides that RFK Jr wants to ban are banned in the European Union

Food additives

Some food additives that RFK Jr wants to ban are banned in Europe

The revolving door politics

RFK Jr wants to stop FDA officials from doing what is shown in this meme.

I think this would be incredibly popular with Americans.

In conclusion: Just because another nation does it differently does not mean they are correct. That’s true, but it does mean, it is not a crazy idea to discuss it. The media is covering RFK Jr. poorly and unfairly. They resort to appeal to authority and— just like for COVID19— they seem incapable of asking what is happening in other countries. My simple rule makes sense. If other nations are doing it, we should be able to discuss it, and RFK Jr should not be called a conspiracy theorist for holding that view.

I have a lot more ideas about RFK Jr in this video: