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David AuBuchon's avatar

Fenton, Gato, and others - some of whom you probably blocked - have been all over this from the start. And it's not just "some" studies that do the 14 day exclusion. It's ALMOST LITERALLY ALL OF THEM:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/378831039_The_extent_and_impact_of_vaccine_status_miscategorisation_on_covid-19_vaccine_efficacy_studies

https://wherearethenumbers.substack.com/p/vaccine-efficacy-cheap-trick-by-exclusion

And the handful of studies that don't do that TEND TO SHOW NEGATIVE EFFICTIVENESS IN THE FIRST 2 WEEEKS. And that is even though an acute healthy vaccinee effect is helping to conceal it.

And as you know Vinay, the healthy user bias is another beast and that has been shown 7 or 8 times. You've only discussed one or two of those occasions. It's not just the boosters. The dramatically lower non-covid mortality among the vaccinated has been going on right since the original 2-dose series.

By the way, Fenton has shown that the misclassification bias can make a placebo or even a negatively effective vaccine look exactly like a waning efficacy curve. THAT'S A PROBLEM.

So to recap, before even accounting for the biases, there is a signal of negative efficacy in the first 2 weeks, and an outright statistically significantly negative VE against cases after 5+ months of waning.

So once you account for the misclassification biases AND the healthy user biases, the data is entirely compatible (i.e. can't even exclude) with the hypothesis that vaccines have led to a net increase in covid deaths and all-cause deaths.

Vinay, you are partially awake, and a lot of people are waiting for you to get the rest of the picture. I second the sentiment that once in a while you need to actually read the comments and learn from them and respond.

Edit: Another commenter reminded me that a negative VE in the first two weeks would further cause higher natural immunity in the vaccine group. Vaccines can do no wrong it seems.

Edit: See my other comments explaining why trials do not exclude a possible acute negative VE.

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Alison F's avatar

Please correct me if I am not understanding correctly. So Doshi has shown that the observational studies' findings for Covid vaccine efficacy are seriously flawed, is that right? And this is supported by the fact that most people who got those vaccines ended up getting Covid anyway, even with multiple and updated boosters, correct?

It looks quite straightforward.

So why aren't the science community/medical community/government health officials all saying some version of, "hey! We thought we knew what we were doing, but it turns out we missed something pretty big! We're going to fix that, and we'll make sure it doesn't happen again going forward."

There were quite a few people who lost their jobs temporarily (some even permanently) for refusing the vaccine, even after the CDC admitted that it didn't prevent transmission.

And I know at least 3 people who got the vaccine under duress -- because the alternative was to lose their jobs -- who had new-onset autoimmune issues within a week or two of getting vaccinated.

Leaving government out of it for now, if the science/medical community does not make this right, and very soon, I think they will never regain public trust. Surely they know this?

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